Will Nikki Haley supporters break party rank and vote for Kamala Harris?

In the reliably blue state of Illinois, more than 85,000 people cast a vote for Nikki Haley during the March 19 primary even though the former United Nations ambassador had dropped out of the presidential race 13 days earlier.

Early voting was underway, and the number was largely viewed as a protest vote from fed-up moderate Republicans, especially in the collar countries, where 26,652 voted for Haley. The numbers also came from “double-haters,” voters who were disenchanted with former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, who dropped out in late July and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.

Those Republicans wanted a new GOP leader, even as Trump and his allies have set themselves up to control the party — regardless if he loses in November.

With Election Day quickly approaching, there’s no way to predict whether those Haley supporters will support Trump, Harris, or simply not vote. Major pollsters haven’t even broached the topic.

And even though Haley endorsed Trump and told her supporters to vote for him, it’s unclear whether they’ll follow suit. Several former Haley state campaign committee chairs have instead endorsed Harris.

Those Haley voters — nearly one million coming from battleground states — could help decide the race, even if the Trump campaign is downplaying their significance.

Chris Carlson/AP

Harris campaign courting Haley voters, Trump relying on endorsement

Haley took the stage at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in July — a bizarre time in the presidential election. She spoke just after Trump’s first assassination attempt in Pennsylvania and before Harris had jumped into the race. And she chose her words wisely.

“For more than a year, I said a vote for Joe Biden is a vote for President Kamala Harris. After seeing the debate, everyone knows it’s true," Haley said. "If we have four more years of Biden or a single day of Harris, our country will be badly worse off. For the sake of our nation, we have to go with Donald Trump.”

Since then, Haley has delivered lukewarm support for Trump, including a Sept. 20 fundraising pitch that said, simply, “President Trump and I are on the same team.” Earlier in September, she told CBS’ Margaret Brennan that she hasn't been asked to campaign for Trump but “he knows I’m on standby.”

“I talked to him back in June. He’s aware that I’m ready if he ever needs me to do that,” Haley said.

During her new radio show on SiriusXM in late September, Haley said listeners wouldn’t be hearing, “glowing things about Donald Trump’s personality.”

“I have issues with him, as well. I have not forgotten what he said about me,” Haley said. “I’ve not forgotten what he said about my husband or his, you know, deployment time or his military service. I haven’t forgotten about...his campaign’s tactics from, you know, putting a bird cage outside our hotel room to calling me ‘bird brain.’ I haven’t forgotten any of that.”

Still, Haley said she’s supporting Trump, “for the good of the country.”

Harris’ campaign is taking advantage of that tepid support and is courting Haley voters — whom they see as protest votes against Trump, especially in states like Georgia and Pennsylvania, which saw significant Haley support even after she dropped out.

The campaign has spent more than seven-figures in paid media in key swing states targeting anti-Trump Republicans. An ad running in Pennsylvania features local farmers who supported Trump twice but are now voting for Harris.

Republicans for Harris

Democrats also launched Republicans for Harris, a grassroots outreach program featuring dozens of endorsements from Republicans, including Illinois pols former Gov. Jim Edgar, former Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood and former Reps. Adam Kinzinger and Joe Walsh.

Since the group’s launch, former Rep. Liz Cheney, former Vice President Dick Cheney, Republican Sen. Jeff Flake and more than 250 former GOP staffers have been added to the hefty list of endorsements.

The goal is to target independent, moderate and conservative-leaning voters through paid media and a “grassroots-driven” digital campaign featuring testimonials, the campaign said.

Walsh, an outspoken Trump critic who ran against him in the 2020 primary, is campaigning for Harris in key swing states.

“Look. This is Trump’s party. So the vast majority of Republicans are going to vote for Trump, and all we’re trying to do is help peel off enough on the margins in each of these battleground states to help make a difference,” Walsh said.

And he said his messaging is very clear: “If you want any kind of sane, decent Republican party back, and all of these people do, then Trump’s got to go get his ass destroyed this November.”

“He’s got to lose. And he’s got to lose by a lot. So that’s a good reason to vote for Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania, because the bigger Trump’s loss, the sooner we might get a decent Republican Party back,” Walsh said. “I hear that message. And I’ve put that message out over and over as well.”

Walsh, who served in Congress from 2011 to 2013 and represented the northern suburbs of Chicago, including portions of Kane, DuPage and Cook counties, now calls himself “not a moderate” and a “former Tea Party guy.” He said he’s supporting Harris because the campaign is “bigger than policy.”

“This has to do with preserving democracy and the rule of law. For people like me and Kinzinger, two national Republicans, for us to publicly come out against Trump and then publicly say we’re going to support Kamala Harris — that takes a degree of courage, because we risk ending our career as Republicans,” Walsh said.

“For local Republicans on the ground in these states, it takes even more courage because they have to come out publicly and they got to live with the people who aren’t happy with them in their communities….A big part of my job is help bolster these Republicans to do the right thing, because it does take courage.”

As for Haley voters, Walsh said many of her supporters are disappointed that she came out to support Trump.

“They know she doesn’t like Trump. They think she was just making a practical political decision,” Walsh said. “And it has zero impact on their decision. And I mean that. I have not met any Nikki Haley voter in any state who said to me, ‘Because Nikki Haley’s voting for Trump, I’m going to.”

Will Haley backers in Illinois back Harris?

Former Illinois House Republican Leader Jim Durkin, a state lawmaker from west suburban Western Springs who called Trump “harmful to Illinois and a good portion of the United States for Republicans” before leaving his post, said he thinks there is a contingency of Haley supporters in Illinois who might vote for Harris — even if those margins won’t make a difference in the Democrat-led state.

“I think Trump was rude to her during the primary. I thought he was very acerbic towards her and it was very unprofessional and really very misogynistic, the way that he handled her,” Durkin said.

Provided

“She has a brand. She has followers. And this is going to be a race that’s going to be decided by a few states and it may go beyond Election Day. So every little bit right now makes a difference,” Durkin said. “But what Nikki Haley said after she left the primary was Donald Trump is going to have to earn those votes. I don’t see anything that he has done or said that accomplishes that goal.”