Poll: Josh Hawley leads Lucas Kunce in Missouri U.S. Senate race

ST. LOUIS - Less than two weeks away from the November general election, FOX 2 has released the results of our exclusive, new Emerson College/The Hill/Nexstar poll, shedding light on where support for Missouri's U.S. Senate race stands.

The Nov. 5, 2024 Missouri U.S. Senate race features the following candidates:

• Josh Hawley (Republican), the incumbent
• Lucas Kunce (Democrat)
• Nathan Kline (Green Party)
• W.C. Young (Libertarian)
• Jared Young (Better Party)

The new Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll finds that Hawley leads in support among all five candidates. Poll results reveal 50.6% support for Hawley, 40.5% support for Kunce, 1.2% support for Kline, 0.6% support for W.C. Young and 0.2% support for Jared Young. Around 6.8% of poll respondents said they were "undecided" in the Missouri U.S. Senate race.

Poll results indicate that Hawley leads Kunce by nearly 10 percentage points in support among respondents.

The highly-contested Missouri U.S. Senate race between Hawley and Kunce has been anticipated for quite some time.

Hawley first attained his U.S. Senate seat in 2018, ousting Democrat incumbent Claire McCaskill by a margin of 51.5% to 45.5%. He is seeking re-election for a second six-year term.

While serving in the Senate, Hawley has pushed for reforms within big-tech companies and advocated for legislation for victims of radioactive contamination in Missouri. He is also widely known for challenging the certification of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

Kunce is a Marine veteran seeking his first term in a political office. He fell short in two previous bids for a U.S. Senate seat. Kunce has advocated in support of abortion rights and universal health care, along with reforms for ownership of U.S. agricultural land.

Ahead of the Nov. 5 general election, Hawley and Kunce are scheduled to debate live from KTVI-TV FOX 2/KPLR-TV studios in St. Louis. The debate will take place on Thursday, Oct. 31 at 7 p.m. CT.

KTVI-TV FOX 2/KPLR-TV will broadcast the debate live, along with Nexstar affiliates in Kansas City (WDAF-TV), Springfield (KRBK) and Joplin (KSNF-TV), and our broadcast partners with the News-Press Gazette in Columbia and St. Joseph.

Support for Hawley and Kunce

Hawley's support has increased in each of the last two Emerson College Polling/The Hill polls that measured support Missouri U.S. Senate candidates. His support increased from 43% in a February poll, to 47% in a June poll to nearly 51% in the newest poll.

Similarly, Kunce's support has also increased since in Emerson College Polling/The Hill polls since he secured the Democratic primary for Missouri's U.S. Senate seat in August. His support increased from 30% in a February poll, to 38% in a June poll to nearly 41% in the newest poll.

U.S. Senate Poll Results - Demographics

According to data from the newly-released Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll...

SUPPORT BY AGE GROUPS

• Hawley's support is strongest among voters between the ages 50-69. Around 60% of poll respondents in that age group favored Hawley in the U.S. Senate race.
• Kunce’s support is strongest among voters under 40 years old. Around 49% of poll respondents in that age group favored Hawley in the U.S. Senate race.

SUPPORT BY GENDER

• Prospective male voters were more likely to support Hawley over Kunce, with Hawley holding a 55% to 40% advantage.
• Prospective female voters were also more likely to support Hawley over Kunce, though it was closer to a split, with Hawley holding a 47% to 41% advantage.

SUPPORT BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT

• Kunce has more support than Hawley among poll respondents whose highest level of educational attainment was graduating college, with Kunce holding a 51% to 45% advantage.

SUPPORT WITHIN POLITICAL PARTIES

“Majorities of Republicans support Hawley and Democrats support Kunce, while independent
voters are split: 42% support Hawley and 41% Kunce,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of
Emerson College Polling, said. “Kunce would need a larger share of independent voters to make
a difference in a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats.”

Results from other polled topics

According to data from the newly-released Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll...

• More poll respondents disapproved than approved of the job Joe Biden is doing as the current U.S. president. 60.1% of respondents disapproved, 32.6% of respondents approved and 7.3% of respondents felt neutral or had no opinion of Biden's ongoing presidential term.
• More poll respondents voted for Republican candidate Donald Trump in the 2020 U.S. Presidential election as opposed the elected Democrat candidate Joe Biden. 51.7% of respondents voted for Trump, while 36.7% voted for Biden and around 12% voted for someone else or did not vote for a presidential candidate.
• Around 93% of poll respondents said they were "very likely" to vote in the November 2024 general election, while the other 7% of respondents said they have already voted ahead of Election Day.

A breakdown of results from other polled topics can be viewed in the slideshow below:

Methodology and data

Emerson College Polling, The Hill, and Nexstar Missouri conducted this poll.  Review our methodology and data here.

Key dates

• October 31, 2024 - Hawley and Kunce are scheduled to debate live from KTVI-TV FOX 2/KPLR-TV studios for one hour at 7 p.m.
• November 4, 2024 - The last day to cast a ballot for the 2024 general election through early voting in Missouri.
• November 5, 2024 - Election Day for the November 2024 general election.