Poll finds Californians strongly support Kamala Harris for president, but not as much as for Biden in 2020

A new poll just days before the Nov. 5 election shows Kamala Harris easily winning her home state of California, but with less support than expected — a worrying sign for the Vice President’s chances in more critical battleground states that could decide the race that is tied nationally.

In its last poll before the election, the nonpartisan Berkeley Institute of Government Studies found 57% support for Harris and 35% support for Republican former President Donald Trump among California voters.

Yet that strong margin is lower than President Joe Biden’s performance in California in 2020. Four years ago, Biden handily clinched the Golden State with 63.5% of votes cast to Trump’s 34.3%.

This year, there’s less enthusiasm for Harris among Latino and Asian American voters, according to the poll. That’s not enough to threaten the Vice President’s chances of winning California’s 54 electoral college votes. However, that could spell trouble for Harris nationally on Election Day in what is broadly considered a razor-thin race.

“Vice President Harris is in a strong position in California, with roughly equal levels of support among its White, Latino and Asian American voters, and very high support among the state’s Black voters,” Eric Schickler, co-director of the polling institute, said in a news release. “At the same time, her lower vote margins among Latino and Asian Americans compared to what Biden received in 2020 speak to why the broader race across the country is likely to be so close.”

In late October, the poll surveyed about 4,300 California voters online in English and Spanish that represent the state electorate. The margin of error was roughly two percentage points. It was paid for in part by the Los Angeles Times.

In 2020, about 75% of Latino and Asian American voters in California supported Biden, according to exit polls cited by the pollsters. Now, that’s dropped to 57% for Latino voters and 56% among Asian American voters, the poll says. Overall, that decline is somewhat offset by strong support by Black voters and college-educated white voters, the pollsters said.

Elsewhere, the poll found strong support for state Proposition 36, which would toughen criminal penalties for repeated drug possession and shoplifting, with 60% of respondents supporting the measure and 25% opposed, suggesting that the divisive measure — whose chief supporters include San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan — will cruise to victory on Election Day.

Consequential measures on rent control and minimum wage hikes appear to be closer, the poll says.

Proposition 32 would raise the state’s minimum wage to $17 or $18, depending on a business’ size. About 47% support the measure, but opposition has grown modestly this fall, the poll says. Now, about 39% oppose it, up from 36% in September.

Opposition is mounting against Proposition 33, which would expand local governments’ ability to enact rent control, with 45% of those surveyed against the plan, an increase of nine percentage points from late September. About 35% support it.