Broncos’ playoff roadmap: What Denver must do to break drought, including Bo Nix taking (and completing) shots downfield

Playoffs? Broncos Country is talking about the playoffs?

It might be crazy to believe, but here we are. The Broncos are 5-3, second in the AFC West and given how teams like the Bengals, Jets and Dolphins have played below expectations thus far, Sean Payton’s crew has a shot at doing something that didn’t seem possible back in August.

There’s a sense of hope in Denver, but the organization still has a ways to go before truly escaping the dark abyss it’s been in since 2016. If the Broncos want to end their eight-year playoff drought, there’s a roadmap to get there. Here’s what it looks like:

Maintain defensive success

Payton said the identity of a championship team is a consistent rushing attack and defense. The Broncos have been successful in the latter, which is one of the biggest stories across the league given last year’s struggles and losing Justin Simmons, one of the top safeties in the league, over the offseason.

The Broncos have held opponents under 20 points in six of eight games. Led by defensive end Zach Allen, and edge rushers Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper, Denver has one of the league’s top pass rushes. Bonitto is on pace to record double-digit sacks while Cooper has a strong chance of doing the same. New additions like Malcolm Roach and John Franklin-Myers have helped improve the team’s run defense. And the Broncos have given up four rushing yards per carry — tied for fourth-best in the league and a vast improvement over last year’s 30th-ranked rushing defense.

In the secondary, cornerback Pat Surtain II is playing at an All-Pro level once again. Meanwhile, second-year cornerback Riley Moss has been solid in the starting role. Part of Denver’s pass rush success has been its ability to play man coverage, providing enough time for the players up front to get after the quarterback.

The next three weeks against Baltimore, Kansas City and Atlanta should serve as a measuring stick of how good Denver’s defense truly is. If they somehow play meaningful football in January it’s because the defense has maintained its high level of play.

Nix must continue to limit turnovers

From a numbers standpoint, Bo Nix was arguably the best rookie quarterback in October. The Broncos rookie threw for 870 yards, seven touchdowns and an interception while completing 66.7% of his passes.

The interception total is a sign of progress after Nix threw four picks in September. While there is still plenty to improve upon, the ability to protect the ball is paramount for Payton’s club to find success.

To that point, the Broncos are 5-0 when Nix doesn’t throw an interception. They are 0-3 when he does.

Denver understands there’s no room for error. Payton said after Wednesday’s practice that one of the keys to beating the Ravens on Sunday is controlling the time of possession. In order to do that, Nix will have to continue to avoid putting the ball in harm’s way.

“Sometimes you are going to put the ball in play and (the opponent) makes a good play,” Nix said. “We have to eliminate them and continue to win the turnover margin. When we do that, we’re successful.”

Rushing attack needs more of angry Javonte

Good things seem to happen when running back Javonte Williams moves down the field like a runaway freight train.

Similar to Denver’s success when Nix doesn’t throw a pick, the team is 8-0 when Williams rushes for at least 60 yards, dating back to the 2023 campaign. The only problem is consistency. Williams has been held under 50 yards rushing five times this fall, most recently in Week 8’s win over the Panthers when he ran for 44 yards on 17 carries and averaged 2.6 yards per attempt.

During the first three games of the season, Williams totaled just 52 yards and was held under 20 yards twice. But last week aside, the last five games have been encouraging, with the former North Carolina Tar Heel recording 293 yards during that stretch.

It’s worth noting that five of the six top rushing offenses — Baltimore, Philadelphia, Washington, Green Bay and Detroit — are in the playoff picture. Those teams also have a combined record of 28-11. Denver is in the middle of the pack, ranking 14th in rushing yards per game (121.4). If the Broncos view themselves as playoff contenders, they will need regular production from Williams and the rest of their running backs.

More big plays in the passing game

Nix, who threw for a season-best 284 yards last week, hasn’t had any problem showing off his arm strength. The former Oregon signal-caller is averaging 8.2 air yards per attempt, according to Next Gen Stats.

The issue has been accuracy. Before Week 8, Nix had a completion percentage of 32.0 on intermediate throws (passes 10-19 yards downfield) and 39.1% (9 for 23) on passes 20-plus yards downfield. While the win over a very bad Carolina team provided an opportunity to establish a rhythm on such throws, the Broncos are not going to play the Panthers every week.

At some point, there will be a game or two where Denver will need Nix’s arm to get the offense going. The Broncos’ trip to Baltimore might be one of those matchups. Baltimore is among the best at stopping the run, but notorious for allowing explosive plays. This season, the Ravens have given up six touchdown passes on throws for 20-plus yards — most in the league. Can Nix take advantage of that vulnerability?

It’s understandable that the Broncos want their offensive identity to be about the run game. But if they can incorporate more explosive plays into the offense, it will open everything else up.

“Each week we have to be able to stretch the field that way,” Payton said. “We’re close on it.”

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