Worldcoin Falls Short of 1 Billion User Goal by 994 Million Despite Recent Milestones

• Worldcoin is far from meeting up with its estimated user target of 1 billion people.
• Orbs shortage and regulatory strain in key locations are responsible for these poor figures.

The Worldcoin (WLD) project has failed to meet its target of onboarding one billion customers with a shortfall of 994 million by 2023. This is despite the project’s recently achieved milestone of building a community of 6 million verified users.

Just in: The Worldcoin community has grown to 6 million verified humans & the Worldcoin Foundation has announced an additional year to redeem reservations.https://t.co/TrKDTXHqqU

— Worldcoin (@worldcoin) July 10, 2024

Factors Limiting Worldcoin’s 1 Billion User Goal

Reports from last year show Worldcoin has continued to suffer a shortage in Orbs, the device that scans people’s iris in exchange for WLD tokens. Semafor reported that Worldcoin had between 300 to 500 Orbs in operation. 

This means Worldcoin would need to scan 2,740 people daily to reach one billion users by 2026, assuming it has 500 Orbs in use. Considering the 6 million users already onboarded, the 500 Orbs would need to scan 2,734 users daily for two years.

Surprisingly, the Worldcoin official website shows that 2,000 Orbs have been manufactured so far. Using this figure to calculate the 994 million user shortfall, each would require scanning 700 people per day to meet the one billion goal in two years.

The Worldcoin Orb shortfall can be attributed to restrictions in several jurisdictions. For example, Worldcoin Orb services have been suspended in India, Brazil, and France, as highlighted in our earlier report. Concerns have been raised regarding Orb’s design, regulation, privacy, security, and business decisions.

In Kenya and South Africa, Worldcoin has resumed operations after previous investigations into the Orb were dropped. At the same time, Worldcoin expanded its presence by launching World ID Orb verifications in Ecuador, as noted in our earlier post.

To assure users of Orb’s safety, Worldcoin recently underwent an audit by cybersecurity firm Trail of Bits. As highlighted in our previous article, the result from the audit concluded that the Orb software is robust and secure against potential attacks. The auditors determined that attackers cannot access users’ iris codes unless they have control of trusted certificates.

Worldcoin Extends Grants

The Worldcoin Foundation recently announced an extension of its grant program for another year. The grant program known as WLD grant reservations was introduced in 2023 by the Foundation shortly after Worldcoin launched. 

The program allows individuals without a verified World ID to reserve WLD tokens to be redeemed at a future date. The essence is to allow as many users to participate in Worldcoin, irrespective of the availability of Orb in their location.

As a result of the extension, users now have an additional year to redeem their WLD grant reservations. This means all WLD grant reservations made between July 24, 2023, and July 31, 2024, will now be valid and redeemable until July 31, 2025. This is against the initial deadline of July 2024.

The positive developments in the Worldcoin ecosystem are yet to trickle down on WLD, as the token has been trading sideways for some time. WLD has experienced a 9.2% decline in the past day, to trade at $1.78. The trading volume also declined by 28% to $145 million.

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