Will Bitcoin Plummet to Zero in the Event of WWIII? Experts Debate as Bitcoin’s Post-Halving Rally Remains Uncertain

• Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized the need for patience towards interest rate cuts creating a bearish sentiment around Bitcoin.
• Market analysts at Lizards Money highlight the impact of geopolitical tensions on market sentiment, cautioning about potential declines if Israel’s retaliatory actions escalate.

Bitcoin has come under strong pressure in recent weeks with its price plunging all the way to $61,500 earlier on Tuesday, April 16. A number of factors contribute to the bias surrounding the next Bitcoin price action. This includes the rising geopolitical tensions and the possibility of a third World War, the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, interest rate hikes, and the possibility of a new all-time high.

Popular crypto analyst Stockmoney Lizards provides a holistic perspective considering each of these factors and how would BTC react in those conditions.

Fed’s Interest Rate Cuts Not Happening Anytime Soon

Retail sales surged by 1.1% yesterday, signaling a resurgence in inflationary pressures. With this development, expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are diminishing, and concerns about potential rate hikes are mounting.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell commented on Tuesday that recent data have not bolstered confidence in inflation moving towards the central bank’s 2% target. He emphasized the need to allow the current restrictive policy more time to take effect, stating that decisions will be guided by evolving data and the outlook.

Likewise, the stock market, represented by the S&P 500 index, is indicating a potential peak signal with the emergence of a rounding top pattern and a broken trendline. Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 has been one of the important factors in deciding future price action.

Stockmarket analysts at Lizards Money observe that the ongoing tension resulting from Iran’s attack on Israel is significantly impacting market sentiment. Historically, the commencement of a military conflict often coincides with the bottoming out of a market correction or decline.

Nevertheless, the potential for a retaliatory strike from Israel is not fully factored into current market prices. Should such a scenario materialize, it is anticipated that markets could experience further declines.

Some Bullish Factors Like Bitcoin Halving

The upcoming Bitcoin halving will lead to a major supply shock for BTC in the market, per the Crypto News Flash report. However, it won’t immediately translate into a BTC price rise. Considering the current macroeconomic landscape, the chart pattern appears to align with a classic Wyckoff distribution, suggesting the possibility of a corrective move downwards. This potential downtrend could be exacerbated by the emergence of more negative news in the market. In conclusion, the mid-term outlook appears bearish.

5/12

…given everything we are seeing right now on the macro side, the current chart pattern follows a classic wyckoff distribution, indicating we could definitely see another corrective move down.

This can be fueled by more negative news

Conclusion: Mid-term bearish pic.twitter.com/laWpsn3mh9

— Stockmoney Lizards (@StockmoneyL) April 16, 2024

Regarding ETFs, major institutional players have halted their purchasing activities, resulting in historically low inflows into ETFs. Our speculation is that these institutions may be sensing impending challenges in the market.

Furthermore, the recent news of ETF approval in Hong Kong led to a brief price spike, which was swiftly followed by a sell-off.