U.S. national debt climbs by at least $1 trillion every 3 months

The U.S. is witnessing a rapid increase in its national debt, marking a significant uptick by approximately $1 trillion every 100 days. Recently, this trend has become more pronounced, with the debt ballooning to over $34 trillion as of early January. This acceleration is a departure from previous patterns where the rise to similar amounts took considerably longer.

On January 4, the debt milestone of $34 trillion was solidly passed, following a brief touch on December 29, as reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. This milestone comes after the debt reached $33 trillion in mid-September of the previous year and $32 trillion in mid-June, showcasing a quickened pace compared to the eight-month period it took to climb from $31 trillion to $32 trillion. Currently, the debt stands close to $34.4 trillion.

Analyst Michael Hartnett at Bank of America thinks that this trend of growth over the past 100 days will continue as the debt rises from $34 trillion to $35 trillion. More and more money is being put into assets like gold and bitcoin, which are seen as protections against debt falling in value. Gold prices have been staying around $2,084 an ounce, but Bitcoin prices went up a lot. It had its best month since 2021and briefly traded above $64,000.

Investing in cryptocurrency funds is also on the rise in the U.S. financial business. This suggests that 2024 could be a year with record-high levels of investment in the sector. Hartnett’s research shows that $44.7 billion flows into crypto funds every year.

Because of these problems with the government’s finances, Moody’s Investors Service changed its view on the U.S. government’s rating to negative, saying they were worried about the country’s economic strength as interest rates rose. The agency stressed the importance of having good fiscal policies that either cut government spending or bring in more money to lower the risks that come with big budget deficits and making it harder to pay their debts.

This week, Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, is scheduled to discuss the state of the U.S. economy and the Fed’s efforts to control inflation before Congress. His testimony comes at a time when the economy’s future, particularly regarding inflation and employment, is under close scrutiny.

The U.S. economy did well in the fourth quarter, but growth was slightly revised lower. The economy is still strong, which is good news for the near future. Even though there were some problems at first, like freezing temps that slowed down early activity, increases in consumer spending, government investment, and business spending show that domestic demand is better than was first thought.

U.S. has managed to avoid a recession despite aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, supported by a tight labor market that has kept wages high and bolstered consumer spending. The GDP growth rate for the last quarter was adjusted to a 3.2% annualized rate, with private inventory investment and consumer spending contributing positively to this growth.

Inflation saw a minor upward revision, although it remains relatively mild compared to earlier in the year. The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a key measure of inflation, rose at a 2.1% pace, slightly above the Fed’s target. This slight increase in inflation has adjusted financial market expectations regarding the timing of rate cuts.

Despite some economic data pointing to a subdued start in January, not all economists view this as a weather-only related phenomenon. Observations of contracting business spending on equipment and a widening trade deficit add layers of complexity to the economic outlook. Nonetheless, the U.S. economy continues to demonstrate resilience, leading global economic performance with a cautious eye on the future amid geopolitical risks.