U.S. election outcomes will do nothing for Bitcoin’s price

The U.S. presidential elections won’t make or break Bitcoin’s price. Sure, markets get jittery around election time. Investors start playing it safe, and we see some wild swings in financial assets, Bitcoin included. 

Bitfinex’s research team believes that the final stretch of election years usually comes with a bit of chaos. Bitcoin has a history of dropping a few months before the elections and bouncing back after. 

It’s a pattern, but let’s not pretend it’s the election results themselves moving Bitcoin. The broader market conditions are the real puppet masters here.

Bitcoin’s election pattern

Let’s look at the numbers. Bitcoin’s price behavior leading up to U.S. elections tends to dip around 2-3 months before voters head to the polls. After the votes are in, Bitcoin usually climbs back up, sometimes rallying hard. 

The analysts say this isn’t about who wins or loses. Instead, it’s more about the timing of the elections with the usual end-of-year market jitters. Elections tend to stir up a lot of uncertainty. 

And when markets are uncertain, Bitcoin usually takes a hit. This pattern showed up in 2012, 2016, and 2020, with Bitcoin dipping before and then rallying after each election.

Let’s not ignore the elephant in the room—Bitcoin is moving more and more like traditional markets, especially the S&P 500. When the SPX takes a hit or gets jumpy, Bitcoin often does the same. 

It’s not Bitcoin being Bitcoin; it’s Bitcoin being influenced by the broader market. As the 2024 election nears, the SPX has been flirting with all-time highs. There’s talk of rate cuts and political changes, all of which add to the uncertainty. 

And when traditional markets get spooked, Bitcoin usually follows suit. After the votes are counted, Bitcoin tends to rally. This is a post-election relief rally. Investors finally know what to expect, or at least they think they do.

Bitcoin’s 2024 rollercoaster

Bitcoin’s had a wild ride in 2024. In March, it hit an all-time high of over $73,000, largely thanks to the spot Bitcoin ETFs. But since then, it’s cooled down, hanging below the $60,000 mark. 

Every time Trump makes a pro-Bitcoin comment, we see a small bump. If Trump wins, some analysts think Bitcoin could shoot to new highs, maybe even above $73,000, because of expected institutional buying and a friendlier regulatory stance. 

On the flip side, Kamala Harris, tied to stricter crypto rules, could mean a drop. Some predictions have Bitcoin falling as low as $16,000 if she wins. Yet, others say Harris could accidentally boost Bitcoin if her policies lead to dollar devaluation.

But let’s not overthink it. The market is split—Trump has a 50% chance of winning, Harris 49%. America’s presidential election results might make for good TV, but they won’t decide Bitcoin’s fate.