The UK is doing a better job of curbing inflation than the U.S. ever can

Britain is edging ahead of the United States in taming inflation, signaling a potential earlier relaxation of interest rates by the Bank of England (BOE) compared to the U.S. Federal Reserve. This week’s forthcoming UK data is anticipated to confirm that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) in March has continued its downward trajectory, while unemployment rates have seen a slight uptick as the country recovers from economic slowdown.

Contrastingly, the U.S. reported an unexpected increase in inflation alongside a drop in unemployment rates, suggesting an economic strengthening. This stark difference in economic recovery paths may set the stage for the BOE to act on interest rates sooner than the Fed.

Economic Indicators and Market Reactions

In the UK, economists predict that inflation for March 2024 will dip below the previous month’s rate, setting a forecasted figure lower than the U.S. headline rate. This downward movement in the CPI is part of a broader positive trend, leading investors to nearly fully price in a UK rate cut by August. Meanwhile, expectations for a U.S. rate cut have been deferred to September after recent data showed stronger economic signals than anticipated.

Megum Muhic from RBC Capital Markets highlighted, “The UK inflation has surprised to the downside over the last two prints, and we think this momentum can continue.” However, the idea of immediate rate cuts by the BOE is met with caution among traders due to lingering inflation concerns voiced by BOE officials Catherine Mann, Jonathan Haskel, and Megan Greene. Moreover, the dominant position of the U.S. market instills a level of hesitation.

Despite these concerns, some market analysts are becoming optimistic about the BOE’s new direction. Dan Hanson and Ana Andrade of Bloomberg Economics noted, “The BOE can resist the Fed’s pull,” pointing out that unique inflation dynamics and the BOE’s past policy effectiveness afford it some autonomy from U.S. economic policies.

UK and US Policy Divergence at IMF Spring Meetings

The upcoming International Monetary Fund (IMF) spring meetings in Washington are set to be a crucial platform for discussing these divergences. Both Jeremy Hunt, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, and Andrew Bailey, Governor of the BOE, will be present as new UK inflation and wage statistics are released. These are expected to show a continued decline in UK—to 3.1% in March from 3.4% in February—and a slight increase in unemployment, marking the second consecutive month of rising joblessness.

In the U.S., however, inflation has climbed to 3.5% over the last two months, marking the first time since March 2022 that the UK’s headline inflation rate has been lower than that of the U.S. This trend, coupled with the expectation that UK inflation will soon fall below the 2% target, supports the BOE’s position for possible rate cuts.

Additionally, falling energy prices in the UK, unlike in the U.S., are set to further drive down inflation. This reduction in energy costs is expected to influence core inflation rates, which exclude volatile items like food and energy, eventually easing wage and price pressures.

As for the U.S., Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell has indicated that a reduction in rates may be delayed, requiring more robust confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2% target. Recent data have not supported this confidence, suggesting a longer wait for U.S. rate adjustments. In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) is poised for a rate cut by June, expecting that no major geopolitical shocks disrupt this course.