Swing states still locked up ahead of Election Day – here’s where they stand

While every American voter may get the chance to cast a vote in their state’s presidential election, large swathes of the country (with the Bay State perhaps the prime example) lean so heavily toward one party that the likely result there is an all-but-foregone conclusion.

However, a near even split in party support in seven states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin means voters in those states could swing the Electoral College toward either presidential candidate.

With just a week to go until the polls close on an extremely tight race, here’s a quick look at where the so-called battleground states stand ahead of the November 5 General Election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. The Herald has also collected data on where they stood toward the end of October in 2016 and 2020.

Arizona

The network news call that Trump lost Arizona in 2020 was essentially the first crack in the dam during that election cycle, and the Grand Canyon State’s 11 electoral votes may again play a pivotal role in the presidential race this year.

According to recent polling, the state is Trump’s to lose this time around. Heading into the contests in 2016 and 2020 he was trailing by more than a point. As of now he’s leading by just under two points on average, and Harris hasn’t polled ahead of him through most of October.

Georgia

Trump went into 2016 tied in Georgia and into 2020 with around a two-point lead. Trump took the Peach State in his first election by a comfortable margin, but when the chips were finally tallied in 2020, Trump’s total was at least — according to the former president’s own assertions to Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger — “11,780 votes” short.

That difference was enough to hand the state’s 16 electoral votes to President Joe Biden, one of several swing-state losses that ultimately led to Trump’s ouster.

The Electoral College math is such that Trump may need to win Georgia this time around if he hopes to see a second term, and polling shows he just might. On average the 45th President is currently ahead in Georgia by around two points.

Michigan

The pair of presidential candidates are essentially tied in the Wolverine State at just shy of 48% support each. Ahead of 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had a seven-point lead, while in 2020 Biden had an eight-point advantage.

Michigan’s 16 electoral votes went to Trump in 2016 in a very close race that culminated in about the same vote split you see there in polling taken between he and Harris. Biden won there in 2020 with a three point spread.

After the last U.S. Census, in 2020, the state’s electoral college seats fell to 15 votes due to reapportionment.

Nevada

Biden won Nevada in 2020 by under 40,000 votes, costing Trump six votes in the electoral college. Clinton also took the state in 2016 by nearly two points, but it’s been leaning more Republican as the election cycles carry on.

Trump leads, on average, by less than a point there now. That’s better than 2016, when he was about a point-and-a-half behind in late October, and much better than in 2020, when he trailed by more than four points at the close of campaigning.

North Carolina

Trump took the Tar Heel State’s 15 electoral votes in 2016 and in 2020, though his margin fell from a three-point lead in 2016 to a point-and-a-half in 2020. Harris is running essentially neck-and-neck with Trump there as of today.  Trump averages a one-point lead,  an advantage well within the margin of error. At this point in previous contests,  Clinton was up by about three points and Biden ahead by about one point.

The state has seen sizable population growth in recent decades, and gained a seat in the Electoral College after the census reapportionment, making its 16 electoral votes all the more important this year.

Pennsylvania

If North Carolina stays in the red column, the Keystone State would be critical to Harris’ path to the Oval Office. Its 19 electoral votes are the most of any swing state this cycle, and it’s the state that — it’s fair to say — guaranteed Trump his victory in 2016 and did the same for Biden in 2020. Pennsylvania lost a seat to reapportionment following the 2020 Census.

Trump is ahead by a margin, just a half point according to polling averages tracked by RealClear Politics. At this time in 2020, Biden was leading by nearly four points and in 2016 Clinton closed October ahead by about five points.

Wisconsin

The Badger State, along with Michigan and Pennsylvania, represent a path to the 270 electoral votes Harris needs to win, or Trump’s path to blocking her ascension and earning a second term for himself.

With 10 electoral seats, Wisconsin is too big to ignore by a candidate locked in a close race and is truly a toss-up each year. Biden earned just over 20,000 more votes than Trump did there in 2020, while Clinton fell short by about the same margin in 2016.

Harris is running a tied race in Wisconsin to close October, while Biden and Clinton ended the month up by about six points.

(Data sources: RealClearPolitics, 538, various state elections offices)