Starr’s 7 Questions: How can MLB fix its pitching injury crisis?

1. Will pitchers adapt after MLB’s study on injuries?

Every superhero has an origin story. Norm Sherry was Sandy Koufax’s. After the struggling young pitcher walked the bases loaded in a 1961 spring training game, his catcher dished out some life-changing advice: ‘Don’t try to throw so hard.’

In other words, trade velocity for control.

How about trading velocity for health? On Tuesday, MLB released their findings from a yearlong study on pitching injuries, and officially stated that velocity and ‘stuff’ (spin rate and break), are the leading causes of injuries.

“There’s no question that if we take the simplest thing, which is fastball velocity, you can see how the average increase in fastball velocity has completely paralleled the increased incidence of injury. If you could take one factor, it’s that,” one orthopedic surgeon stated in contribution to the study.

The report, compiled after a year of interviewing over 200 people, including coaches, former players, trainers, surgeons, and biomechanists, paints a troubling picture of professional and amateur pitching. Pre-Opening Day injuries have increased significantly in recent years (correlated with pitchers’ increasingly-heavy offseason routines), and minor league teams aren’t preparing their players for big-league workloads. Other contributing factors include training changes, rule changes (including the pitch clock), and the COVID-shortened 2020 season, which disrupted normal routines.

The trickle-down effect is havoc: high school pitchers are throwing harder than ever to impress colleges and pro scouts, and injuring themselves before their lives have even truly begun. Over the last two decades, the percentage of pitchers who’ve had UCL reconstructive surgery before being drafted has risen from 5% to over 33%. Surgical advancements are proving to be both blessing and curse, the study explains.

“They have such a faith in the Tommy John procedure, they’re willing to sacrifice their own elbow knowing if they wind up tearing it, they can get it fixed,” an orthopedic surgeon said for the study. “They don’t realize that 20% of the ones who get it, don’t make it back. They don’t know that. They figure it’s worth it, it’s what I’ve got to do to be an elite pitcher, which is to throw 100 mph on every pitch or as hard as I can on every pitch, and take my chances, and if I get hurt, I’ll get it fixed.”

2. Who are the odd men out now that the Red Sox have added Garrett Crochet to their starting rotation?

At present, the projected 2025 rotation is Garret Crochet, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Lucas Giolito (not necessarily in that order).

Other options on the 40-man roster include Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts, Quinn Priester, Garrett Whitlock and Josh Winckowski. Even if the Red Sox decide to go with a six-man rotation, or the occasional swing-man, they won’t be keeping all of these arms on the 26-man active roster. Depth is a good problem to have, though.

But the Red Sox don’t seem to be done. If they follow through on adding another starter, either by convincing the Mariners to part with Luis Castillo or throwing an astronomical sum at free-agent Corbin Burnes, what then?

3. Why is Triston Casas a trade candidate?

The Red Sox have tried to trade first baseman Triston Casas in part because they’ve been frustrated with the his “antics,” a source told the Herald.

The homegrown first baseman’s uniqueness certainly stands out in a game deeply rooted in tradition. As a rookie, he was criticized and bullied by more veteran players for his unorthodox pre-game routines, which include laying on the field (a practice known as ‘grounding’), dry swinging with his arms wrapped around a large barrel, alternating an eye patch between one eye and the other during batting practice to assess his vision.

Casas’ openness with the media has also ruffled feathers on occasion. While rehabbing his rib cartilage injury at Triple-A Worcester in early August, he told reporters that making contact with a baseball felt like someone was “stabbing (him) right in the ribs,” and described the injury, which occurred during an April at-bat, as feeling like he “got shot with a gun.”

Asked about Casas’ comments, manager Alex Cora said, “Sometimes, I read stuff and I’m like, ‘Are we on the same page here?’ … That one caught me off-guard. … We talked to him and hopefully that’s the end of gunshots and knives.”

4. How do the Red Sox address their catcher needs?

Kyle Teel was supposed to be the catcher of the future, the most promising Boston backstop since Jason Varitek, and he was slated to make his major league debut in 2025.

Instead, the Red Sox traded him for Crochet and now have a sizable question mark in their future plans. According to MLB Pipeline’s updated Top 30 Prospect rankings after the trade, Johanfran Garcia (No. 17) and Brooks Brannon (No. 23), and they aren’t projected to reach the majors until 2027. The brass also feels very strongly that current everyday Connor Wong needs to improve, and now they don’t have a potential superstar catcher waiting in the Triple-A wings to replace him.

5. How embarrassing is it for the Yankees?

The Mets have always long been the little brother to the Yankees’ older, richer, vastly more successful big brother. The Yankees, an original American League franchise (est. 1901), had already won 19 World Series championships by the time the Mets were established in 1962, and won their 20th that same year.

Signing Juan Soto doesn’t instantly put the Mets on top, but it’s certainly an embarrassing situation for the Yankees, who made him a very similar offer. Soto assessed both franchises, and felt the Mets were better poised for success in the long-term.

Imagine telling someone that five years ago.

6. Who’s winning the offseason, the Red Sox or the Yankees?

Soto didn’t choose the Red Sox, either, but the Yankees are still the bigger losers in that regard; they had exclusive bargaining rights for nearly a year and went all the way to the World Series with him and they still couldn’t convince him to stay.

But in terms of additions, the Yankees are certainly in the lead. They’ve signed Max Fried and acquired ace closer Devin Williams and former MVP Cody Bellinger. The Red Sox lost Fried, who reportedly would’ve preferred Boston if their offer had matched New York’s, and their only other additions thus far are three former Yankees: ex-closer Aroldis Chapman, veteran reliever Justin Wilson, and rookie catcher Carlos Narvaez.

7. Remember Colten Brewer?

As of Tuesday Brewer, the lone bullpen addition the Red Sox made after losing Joe Kelly and Craig Kimbrel to free agency during the ‘18-19 offseason, is a Yankee again (on a minor-league deal).