Renck vs. Keeler: Should Broncos’ Sean Payton win Coach of the Year honors?

Troy Renck: After last season, Sean Payton was, to many in Broncos Country, an annoyance — an abrasive, overrated leader who failed to deliver. This season he is Mike Shanahan 2.0. The former Super Bowl champion has created an invested culture, supported his defensive coordinator’s aggressiveness and found a franchise quarterback in rookie Bo Nix. At 7-5 after their first win in Las Vegas and first road win against the Raiders in eight years, the Broncos sit firmly in the playoffs. That is remarkable work for a team in transition that oddsmakers pegged to win between five and six games. It raises the question, has anyone done a better job than Payton? Sean, the field is crowded, but can Payton win NFL Coach of the Year honors?

Sean Keeler: At this rate? Heck, yeah. In honor of the Broncos’ first win in Sin City, I pulled up the NFL over/under win estimates as of Aug. 31 on SportsBettingDIme.com. Denver was at the consensus 5.5 — a number it shot past weeks ago. At Week 12, only three of the eight teams expected to be the NFL’s worst — which included Denver — had already topped their preseason victory bars. Only the Vikings’ Kevin O’Connell, with nine wins already on a 6.5 over/under, has overshot Vegas’ expectations this season more than Payton (seven wins on 5.5) has. Dan Campbell and Andy Reid are rolling with the Lions and Chiefs right now, but let’s face it: They were supposed to. For me, the COY race comes down to Payton, O’Connell and Washington’s Dan Quinn, with Arizona’s Jonathan Gannon threatening a push.

Renck: The problem for Payton is that he spotted the field a large lead. The Broncos opened the season 0-2, losing national attention. But now? Denver boasts a 7-3 record over its last 10 games, including a 4-2 road record. He took the sixth quarterback in the draft and turned him into Drew Brees Lite, giving Nix a realistic shot at Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Payton has shown elasticity in his play-calling with Nix. And he’s the only Coach of the Year candidate working with a rookie; Mike Tomlin, Dan Campbell, Kevin O’Connell and Jim Harbaugh are leaning on veterans, even if two (Russell Wilson and Sam Darnold) are reclamation projects. In the event of a tie, the coach with the kid should get the nod.

Keeler: And ordinarily, I’d agree with you. Nix is a revelation — and he’s not the only one. It’s Jerry Jeudy Week, and thanks to Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims Jr., the Broncos don’t miss him. But if I’ve got to vote on the thing today, I’d be tempted to lean O’Connell’s way, and for exactly one of the reasons you mentioned — turning a QB pulled off the scrap heap (Darnold) into a mean, lean, throwing machine. I mean, you or I would look halfway competent throwing to Justin Jefferson, granted, but Big Sam’s on a pace to throw for 33 scores, for pity’s sake. That’s insanity.

Renck: Payton is carving out a resume that will earn Hall of Fame consideration. Reaching a second Super Bowl in the next few years would fuel his campaign with nitromethane. Payton last won Coach of the Year honors in 2006 and 2007. He was feted for reviving the Saints, if not the city of New Orleans. His candidacy this year is built on exorcising demons and exacting revenge. He ended the Raiders’ dominance at home and on the road, went undefeated against the NFC South and remains in position to end the Broncos’ streak of seven straight losing seasons and eight years without a playoff berth. Do that and his resume compares favorably to any coach in the field.

Keeler: Whoever wins more games among the Broncos, Vikings and Commanders will probably take home the gold, although Payton’s case keeps stacking up serious street cred. Besides that long-overdue exorcism of The Raiders Jinx, Payton’s chasing the postseason with rookies at QB1, WR2, WR3 and RB3. That’s got to be considered one of the best coaching jobs in recent Broncos history. If Sunshine Sean wants his NFL second act to look like Andy Reid’s, brother, I’m here for it.

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