Punish Democrats or Stop Trump? Arab Americans are agonizing over their votes

Arab Americans are one voting bloc that’s used to being slighted by both major parties. In 1984, Walter Mondale, the Democratic candidate for president, returned donations made by Arab Americans; a campaign official at the time said it was the campaign’s policy to refuse contributions from that community. In 1988, Democratic candidate Michael Dukakis rejected an endorsement by an Arab American group. And in 2016, Donald Trump campaigned on banning Muslims from the country and claimed that Arabs in New Jersey cheered as the World Trade Center collapsed on 9/11. 

Now, Arab Americans feel deliberately ignored and disrespected yet again. The Biden administration’s unflinching political and financial support for Israel — despite the rising death tolls and humanitarian crisis that the war in Gaza has wrought — has roiled the community, and the general lack of empathy the administration has shown for Palestinians has left a bitter taste in people’s mouths. 

When President Joe Biden dropped out and Vice President Kamala Harris became the party’s nominee, Democrats had a chance at a reset with a voting bloc that could very well tip the election. (Arab Americans make up hundreds of thousands of voters in key swing states.) But many feel the Harris campaign’s outreach to Arab Americans has been, to put it mildly, lackluster at best. 

“I was like, ‘All right, you have a blank slate, let’s see what you’re going to do with that,’” said Rowan Imran, a Palestinian American who lives in Phoenix, Arizona. “That was very disappointing to see her dig her heels further in the ground and just uphold every single [Biden] policy … It was very clear that we’re just getting a different face with the same policies.”

As Harris rose to the top of the ticket, she had to find a delicate balance: distance herself enough from Biden to convince some voters that she wouldn’t be the same as him on Gaza while still representing the US government’s policies as the sitting vice president. It’s a balance she never quite struck. At times, she criticized Israel’s actions that led to “far too many” civilian deaths and acknowledged the human toll in Gaza, but she would always couple those kinds of remarks with justifications for the war. Recently, after being asked about the prospect of losing Arab and Muslim voters because of Israel’s conduct, Harris said, “There are so many tragic stories coming from Gaza,” but that “the first and most tragic story is October 7.”

The numbers reflect a dissatisfaction with Harris’s approach: A recent poll showed Harris effectively tied with Trump among Arab Americans, leaving her nearly 20 points behind Biden’s numbers in 2020. Another poll showed Trump with a slight lead. 

Trump has been trying to take advantage of that. Earlier this week, for example, he tweeted that he would “stop the suffering and destruction in Lebanon,” referring to Israel’s escalating attacks in the region. He then directly appealed to Lebanese American voters by adding, “Your friends and family in Lebanon deserve to live in peace, prosperity, and harmony with their neighbors.” He also touted an endorsement he received from Amer Ghalib, the mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan, a Muslim-majority city on the outskirts of Detroit.

Given how close the election has been — with poll after poll showing a neck-and-neck race in swing states — it’s clear that Arab Americans, who make up a meaningful number of voters in must-win states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, can’t be taken for granted. And some liberals have been expressing frustration toward Arab American voters who refuse to vote for Harris, saying that Trump is worse for them because of policies like the Muslim ban. Harris echoed that frustration when she responded to pro-Palestinian protesters at a rally in August, telling them, “You know what? If you want Donald Trump to win, then say that.”

But many Arab Americans are well aware of who Trump is and do resent the prospect of another Trump presidency. What they feel is that they’ve been pushed between a rock and a hard place.

A difficult choice

Some have dismissed Arab Americans’ concerns and potential protest votes as irresponsible, but the reality is much more complicated. Israel has been credibly accused of genocide, and if you’re a voter who genuinely believes that what’s happening in Gaza is a genocide, then the choice next week might not be so easy: On the one hand, your vote can be used to hold the Biden administration accountable. On the other hand, it can be used to stop Trump’s assault on American democracy. And if you choose the latter, does voting for Harris mean that you’re giving the Biden administration a pass for its handling of Gaza?

Those are the kinds of questions haunting many liberal Arab Americans as they approach the voting booth. But democracy, the voters I spoke with argued, requires politicians to cater to the electorate, not the other way around.

Imran, a 35-year-old psychiatric nurse practitioner, had been a reliable Democratic voter. “I remember crying when Biden won and just feeling this sense of relief and, you know, someone that’s gonna reflect our values, be the voice of the people. And so that’s why a lot of this is so disappointing, because voting and supporting Kamala Harris, it should be a natural decision for me,” she said. “But because of the constant betrayal that we feel, the unconditional aid to Israel, the indifference to the lives of Palestinians, this has become the most complicated, impossible decision of my life.”

Imran is now planning to vote third party. And part of the reason that it’s been a difficult decision for her is because she acknowledges the dangers of a second Trump presidency. “We do not support a Trump presidency. We understand the dangers, the harm,” she said. But “people again feel abandoned, they feel betrayed. We’re seeing our leaders prioritize foreign interests over the lives of people who look like us. And that’s not something we can overlook. You know, votes are not just a given, they need to be earned.”

In her view, it’s not her personal responsibility to stop Trump; it’s Harris’s and the Democrats’. And if Trump has another go at the presidency, then it’s only the Democrats to blame, not the voters who defected. Choosing to sit out or vote third party is a way to remind the major parties that they aren’t doing enough.

Even those who might be voting for Harris have agonized over their decision, and some don’t even feel comfortable speaking about it because she was, after all, part of the administration that financed Israel’s war.

Asma, a 50-year-old medical professional in North Carolina, has voted in every election since she was 18. (Asma asked that Vox use only her first name so she can speak more freely.) And though she usually votes early, this time she’s still holding out in the hopes that she hears some commitment from Harris that she’ll deviate from Biden’s Israel policy. “I’m just looking for validation. I’m looking for basically Harris to do anything, something to show that she has some compassion or some interest in the views that Muslims hold,” Asma told me. 

But Harris never seemed to deliver. “We just wonder, what would she lose by being a little more inclusive in her humanity or her compassion or her empathy toward the Palestinians or toward Muslims?” Asma said. “When asked about Gaza, she doesn’t always have to talk about the October 7 hostages. Yes, we understand how you feel about that — you’ve made that plain and clear. Maybe you need to say something about the Palestinians and their plight, exclusive of [the hostages’] situation.”

Asma said the election has divided many in her community, with many people judging others for how they’re voting, and some saying that a vote for Harris is essentially a vote for genocide. But a lot of people, Asma said, would still prefer voting for Harris over Trump because they believe Trump would make the situation in Gaza even worse.

Still, some voters feel a certain level of guilt holding them back. If Gaza isn’t their red line, then what would be?

That’s how Houston Brown, a 33-year-old Atlanta resident, is thinking of his vote. “The most inconceivable thing you can think of is genocide. It’s horrific,” Brown, whose mother is Palestinian, said. “And if there are no consequences for that, there will be no consequences for anything.”

Brown was hopeful that Harris would distance herself from Biden on Gaza. And though he views her as more conservative than he’d prefer the Democratic candidate to be, he was still willing to vote for her, he said, because he doesn’t agree with any of Trump’s policies. “I would still vote for her regardless of that, regardless of my disagreements with her policies, if there was an arms embargo and a commitment to hold Israel accountable for what they’ve done,” he said.

Harris, of course, made no such commitment, and other moves by her campaign — such as refusing to give a speaking slot to a Palestinian American at the Democratic National Convention — made Brown feel like the vice president was not taking Gaza seriously. Now, Brown is likely going to vote third party, and if that means Trump might be back in the White House, that’s a risk Brown accepts. “The repercussions are what they are, and we’ll cross that bridge when we get there,” he said.

“I understand that it could be worse under Trump,” he added. “But 40,000 dead Palestinians isn’t any different than 40,000 dead Americans to me. And our policies have led to the murder of over 40,000 Palestinians.”

While Trump has tried to make appeals to disaffected Arab Americans, he’s also been saying he’d be even more supportive of Israel than Biden has been. Recently, Trump said that Benjamin Netanyahu was “doing a good job” and that Biden was, if anything, holding the Israeli prime minister back. Trump’s own record on Israel has also been bad for Palestinians. For example, he moved the Israeli embassy to Jerusalem — making the US officially recognize the city as Israel’s capital, despite the fact that East Jerusalem is still occupied Palestinian territory — and his State Department declared that the United States would no longer deem settlements in the West Bank to be illegal under international law.

But many voters who are sitting out or voting third party aren’t under the illusion that Trump is in any way a better alternative for Palestinians. For them, what’s happened in Gaza over the past year already constitutes the worst of outcomes: Israel has killed tens of thousands of innocent people, obliterated educational, religious, and health care infrastructure, created conditions for preventable diseases to spread, and targeted and killed journalists at an unprecedented rate.

“In no way do I imagine Trump is better for Palestine,” Brown said. But “I can’t imagine it worse. I don’t think the Democrats are doing anything to stop it — they’re actively supporting it. So if there’s no real change for Palestine, why would I reward the people who are doing this now?”

Where the Harris campaign goes from here

Arab Americans didn’t always lean toward Democrats. In 2000, Arab Americans predominantly voted for George W. Bush, and Republicans viewed them as a winnable demographic. But since the aftermath of 9/11 and the surveillance of Arabs and Muslims, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Republicans’ xenophobic and Islamophobic overtures to white voters, Arabs have steadily moved toward Democrats. In 2020, Biden won about 60 percent of the Arab American vote.

Democrats’ progress, however, seems to have all but evaporated. Now, there’s no question that there is a protest vote in the making among Arab Americans and others who, like Brown, feel like a vote for Harris is an endorsement of the status quo. Since the primaries, Democratic voters have organized around this issue, launching an “uncommitted” movement where hundreds of thousands of voters selected “uncommitted” instead of Biden during the Democratic primaries to register their discontent over his handling of Gaza.

The question is whether the protest vote will be big enough to swing the election in Trump’s favor.

“There is a ‘punish’ sense, and you hear that a lot, right? ‘We’re, we’re going to punish the Dems. They don’t deserve to win after what they’ve done,’” said James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute. “I think that’s a smaller number than one might be led to believe, but if it comes out to a tie as it is right now, those are a lot of votes Democrats will have left on the table … losing 60,000, 70,000 votes in Michigan — that’s a lot of votes to lose in the state that’s going to be close.”

Recently, Harris did address Arab Americans specifically and spoke more candidly about the suffering in Gaza and Lebanon that’s happening as a result of Israel’s assaults.

“I know this year has been very difficult given the scale of death and destruction in Gaza, and given the civilian casualties and displacement in Lebanon. It is devastating,” she said.

At this point, it might seem too little too late for Harris to change people’s minds. And for many Arab Americans and other supporters of the Palestinian cause, actions speak louder than words. And the lack of willingness on the part of the Biden administration to use the levers at its disposal to restrain Israel now leaves voters with a choice: take a unique opportunity to show that there can be electoral consequences for an administration facilitating the kind of war Israel has waged on Palestinians or help end Trump’s political career. But they can’t have both — at least not at the ballot box.