Pac-12 bowl projections: Much depends on Arizona State and Colorado while Oregon State’s fate remains uncertain

In one regard, the Pac-12 hasn’t splintered: All 12 schools remain tied to the bowls that have been affiliated with the conference in recent years. Exceptions are made for teams that qualify for the College Football Playoff as conference winners or at-large entrants. Otherwise, what’s past is present for the 2024-25 seasons.

The Hotline will provide weekly projections for the teams throughout the regular season.

Please note: We also unveil our CFP picks each Monday.

One week remaining, there is one team left.

Of the 12 legacy Pac-12 schools, each of them tied to the conference’s longstanding bowl games, only one does not know its fate.

Seven have clinched postseason berths.

Four have been eliminated.

Oregon State remains in limbo.

The Beavers must win their regular-season finale Friday morning at Boise State to secure the six victories necessary to join the contingent participating in what’s officially called Bowl Season.

The landing spots for the seven (or eight) bowl-eligible teams could be fairly clear this weekend, depending on the outcome of the multi-team race for the Big 12 championship.

If Arizona State or Colorado wins the Big 12, it would advance to the 12-team College Football Playoff and join Oregon to give the legacy schools two CFP representatives. (The Ducks are a lock whether or not they win the Big Ten title.)

The more teams that advance to the playoff, the more vacancies atop the Pac-12’s bowl lineup. That creates room for the eligible teams not headed to the playoff to move up in the pecking order.

If Oregon State doesn’t qualify but either ASU or Colorado wins the Big 12 championship, there would be five eligible teams for the six bowls affiliated with the legacy schools.

The Independence, which is last in the pecking order, would have an opening (filled by a team from another conference).

Our projections are based on the Beavers losing — they are three-touchdown underdogs — and neither ASU or Colorado winning the Big 12, where mayhem is the name of the game.

College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon (Big Ten runner-up)
Comment: The Ducks have a CFP bid locked up and are playing for seed against Washington this weekend and in the Big Ten championship game. But it’s not clear that winning out would be preferable to losing one of the last two if Oregon’s goal is to advance to at least the semifinals.

Alamo Bowl
Team: Colorado
Comment: There is a path into the Big 12 championship, but it’s narrow. In addition to beating Oklahoma State, the Buffaloes need Brigham Young to lose to Houston and Texas Tech to beat West Virginia. If they don’t make the playoff, the Buffs likely will be the first pick of the teams eligible for the Pac-12’s partner bowls.

Holiday Bowl
Team: Arizona State
Comment: The Sun Devils control their destiny in the Big 12 race with one small exception: If Brigham Young, West Virginia, Kansas and TCU all lose, the Devils would get boxed out (according to the Big 12). Our forecast calls for them to play for the conference championship, lose to Iowa State and head to either the Alamo or Holiday Bowls.

Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Washington State
Comment: From the outskirts of the CFP race a few weeks ago to the Las Vegas Bowl, the Cougars are tumbling after back-to-back losses. But with a victory over Wyoming this weekend, they can only fall so far because of the protections built into the selection process. As a nine-win team, WSU could not get passed over in favor of a team with six or seven victories.

Sun Bowl
Team: USC
Comment: If the results unfold as we expect, the Sun Bowl would have the choice of USC, Cal and Washington — all of them with 6-6 records and none of them eligible to climb higher than the Sun. After privately bemoaning their options, bowl officials decide to welcome Trojans coach Lincoln Riley, who grew up in West Texas, to El Paso.

LA Bowl
Team: Cal
Comment: There are enough Cal alumni in the greater Los Angeles area to justify inviting the Bears to the LA Bowl, where they would face an opponent from the Mountain West. That said, our forecast could change if they get embarrassed at SMU this weekend.

Independence Bowl
Team: Washington
Comment: One year later, the Huskies return to Louisiana for their bowl game — except it’s in Shreveport on Dec. 28 and not New Orleans on Jan. 1.

Non-qualifier
Team: Arizona
Comment: We think back to how quickly the balance of power in Arizona flipped from favoring the Sun Devils in 2020 to the Wildcats in 2023. Yet that pales in comparison to the speed of the flip back to ASU’s favor from 2023, when the Wildcats won 10 games and the Sun Devils won three, to this season.

Non-qualifier
Team: Oregon State
Comment: The Beavers (5-6) did well to beat Washington State and add meaning to their finale. But we foresee a loss on the blue turf as Boise State takes aim at the College Football Playoff and celebrates tailbacks Ashton Jeanty’s final home game.

Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford
Comment: There are simply too few playmakers on the roster for the Cardinal to compete in the ACC unless coach Troy Taylor is given the resources and support from campus to attract more high-level transfers.

Non-qualifier
Team: UCLA
Comment: The phrase “gutty little Bruins,” which dates to the 1960s, is perfectly appropriate in the current environment when we compare UCLA’s personnel to that accumulated by the Big Ten heavyweights like Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State.

Non-qualifier
Team: Utah
Comment: The Hotline was never very good at math, but playing six quarterbacks in two seasons because of injuries seems bad.

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