Oregon State in free fall: Late-season collapse has limited consequences following latest realignment moves

Oregon State saved its worst performance for the most important game. That speaks volumes about the face plant at Air Force on Saturday afternoon, because the Beavers have offered several third-rate showings for our consumption.

To retain any margin for error in their quest for a bowl bid, the Beavers needed to handle an opponent that had one major college victory on its resume this season. Instead, Oregon State was manhandled: outgained by 235 yards; outscored by 28 points; out-coached by an incalculable amount.

All of which leaves the Beavers (4-6) with five consecutive losses and a double whammy blocking their path into the postseason. They must beat Washington State (8-2) and Boise State (9-1) to reach the six-win threshold necessary for a bowl berth.

If everything breaks right, perhaps the Beavers take down WSU. But they aren’t beating Boise State on the Blue Turf with the Broncos driving for a playoff berth and Ashton Jeanty playing for the Heisman Trophy in his final home game.

At best, the Beavers finish 5-7.

More likely, they are 4-8.

Either way, Oregon State would have failed to accomplish its primary mission: Staying relevant through the regular season and postseason.

Then again, relevance no longer matters to the degree it did prior to the season.

Everything changed for the Beavers on Sept. 12, when the Pac-12 announced the additions of Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State in the summer of 2026 and secured its future.

At that point, Oregon State was officially out of the audition business.

With the path into the Power Four blocked, the Beavers’ best option was to rebuild the Pac-12 with Washington State, grab the top of the Mountain West, cut the most lucrative media rights deal available and make the situation work for the rest of the decade while college football’s powerbrokers determined the sport’s future structure.

Imagine if the Beavers and Cougars hadn’t locked up the best of the Mountain West and Gonzaga …

If the two schools had clung to a false hope of salvation via the Big 12 or ACC …

If they had remained adrift through the fall.

In that world, the Beavers’ collapse might have impacted the Pac-12’s reclamation project.

Certainly, they would not have been able to justify their public position as a power conference program left behind in the realignment game.

Their messaging would have drawn belly laughs, not mere skepticism.

Realignment decisions are made with the long haul in mind, but a football program that cannot beat UNLV, Nevada, San Jose State and Air Force does not have the same pull as a program claiming power conference status with no tangible evidence to refute the position.

The Beavers and Cougars were smart to rebuild when they did, to lock in a future and ignore a three-month roll of the dice.

That said, the warning signs are flashing in Corvallis as first-year coach Trent Bray scrambles to address an expanding list of woe.

Yes, the Beavers were whacked by attrition (i.e., the transfer portal) and poorly equipped to deal with exactly the spate of injuries that struck midway through the season. That’s not an excuse. It’s the reality of OSU’s existence.

But 10 games into this new era, we don’t have confirmation that the coaching staff, as currently constructed, is capable of winning at the level required to compete for a championship in the Pac-12’s next era.

After all, the Beavers can’t even beat the teams they deemed not good enough for the reconstructed conference.

The questionable use of quarterbacks and inept passing game are particularly alarming even when accounting for the injuries.

Bray was a risky hire made during a roiling stretch for the university, after Jonathan Smith’s late-season departure and long before the Beavers and Cougars had secured their future.

One season — especially this season — is not nearly enough time to cast final judgment. But Oregon State cannot wait four or five years, either.

Everything about college football has accelerated with the transfer portal, realignment and the expanded playoff. Teams can rise from nowhere or slide into the abyss in a single season.

By this time next year, Bray must have his program on a clear path to success in its new existence.

Fortunately for the Beavers, the missteps and ill fortune that have swallowed the fall will have no impact on their conference affiliation.

Mercifully, Oregon State’s audition was canceled.

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