OBF: Circus comes to Texas with Mike Tyson-Jake Paul bout

Iron Mike vs. Teflon Jake.

YouTube star, turned social media icon, turned entrepreneur, turned boxer Jake Paul bills himself as a “disruptor.”

Mike Tyson was the “OG Disruptor.” He wrecked the heavyweight division when it mattered. Once he was finally toppled from his unified throne – due in parts to Buster Douglas, a rape conviction, and a prison term – only Evander Holyfield and a middle-aged George Foreman could bring in the pay-per-view heavyweight numbers.

The heavies haven’t been the same since.

Tyson and Paul are expected to pack AT&T Stadium near Dallas Friday for their heavyweight bout to be live streamed on Netflix starting at 8 p.m. This is a sanctioned heavyweight fight. It’s got all the must-see cache of NBC’s 1990s Thursday night lineup.

Paul claims the biggest gate of any fight outside Las Vegas this year. He is making $40 million. Reports have Tyson earning half that amount. Not bad for 16 minutes of work. More on that in a bit. Jerry World has an expandable capacity of up to 100,000. The victor Friday will have more wins this season at AT&T Stadium than the Dallas Cowboys.

Some key elements make this fight unique.

There’s a 31-year-age difference between the combatants.

Tyson is 58. Paul is 27.

The fight was delayed from its original July date because Tyson suffered an ulcer flare-up.

(When was the last time any athlete took himself out of any event because of an ulcer flare-up?)

Each boxer will wear 14-ounce gloves, as opposed to the customary 10-ounce gloves.

The fight will consist of 8 rounds, each only lasting 2 minutes.

Compare that to a traditional bout that could go 12 rounds of 3 minutes apiece.

16 minutes of fighting vs. 36 minutes of fighting.

And therein lies the hidden gimmick.

This fight won’t be much of a fight. No matter the result, it won’t last more than 40 minutes on the clock. Blink, or doze off, and you’ll miss it.

The disparity in age between the fighters was one reason why six states won’t allow legal betting on the fight. Those are Pennsylvania, New York, Colorado, Vermont, Louisiana, and Kentucky.

Wagering on the fight is allowed in Massachusetts and across the rest of New England. Massachusetts Gaming Commission Chair Jordan Maynard last week said shorter rounds and larger gloves add a buffer of safety. Maynard also said the Commission wanted to allow wagering on the fight so that Bay State bettors would be less inclined to wager on offshore, out-of-state, or illegal betting sites.

Or with Jimmy at the VFW.

Oddsmakers have Paul as a -220 favorite. With Tyson ranging around +175. Those numbers have moved significantly since they opened. Paul was -345 and Tyson was +220. The over/under is 6.5 rounds. With the larger vig on the under at -130.

The public is going in heavy on Tyson. At BetMGM, 80% of bets and 73% of money is on Tyson to win. That number is about 60% at DraftKings. Brad Hardwood of Caesars says: “It’s clear we need Paul on this one.” His book is seeing 91% of the tickets and 77% of the money on Tyson. There are also 3 title fights on the undercard.

“We’re expecting it to be our largest wagered-upon boxing event of 2024 and the most wagered-upon Jake Paul fight. But it won’t come close to (Floyd) Mayweather-(Conor) McGregor. That was a complete outlier,”  adds the Nevada Superbook’s Jeff Sherman.

Today’s Tyson is not the Tyson who captivated the world of sports in the last century.

“Tyson has skills left. He looks like he’s in good shape and he’ll probably land some good punches. But he’s just 30 years older than Paul, and that’s the reason why Paul’s a -220 favorite over him,” DraftKings’ Director of Race and Sports Johnny Avello told me. “Think about this in Tyson’s Day. Tyson would’ve been 50-to-win-1 in this fight.”

Or -5000.

Avello was working at Bally’s in 1990 when Buster Douglas was infamously 42-1 against Tyson. No Vegas bookmaker has since claimed taking a bet on Douglas at that number. However, the Mirage booked one wager on Tyson at -4200, according to the oft-told tale by legendary oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro. One person lost $168,000 trying to win $4,000. The price on Tyson floated between -2700 and -3200 before it was taken off the board. One 37-1 ticket for $1500 returned $55,000 on Douglas, Vaccaro said.

“Tyson was one of the most iconic fighters of all time. Any time he got into the ring, you could expect him to give it all and have no mercy on whoever he was fighting. I’m looking forward to it,” Avello says.

Paul is deceptively strong and quick. While Tyson can boast of “old man” strength, his stamina and quickness will be a major liability here. And he hasn’t shown much conditioning in any of his pre-fight training videos.

Here’s what Caesars Sportsbooks Lead Combat Oddsmaker Brandon Yeager expects to see: “Mike Tyson will make this fight competitive for the first 4 rounds where his power will be a factor. After that, I think he will be too gassed. Jake Paul has shown that even though he’s not the most technical boxer, he does carry some power in his hands. A ref will have a short leash on the damage they will allow Tyson to take due to his age and health concerns. This could lead to a late-round stoppage by Jake Paul.”

Sounds about right.

We’d all love to see Tyson re-live his glory days in the ring one more time.

But that’s why they invented YouTube.

Bill Speros (@RealOBF and @BillSperos on X) is a Senior Betting Analyst for Bookies.Com when not laughing at the Red Sox being mentioned alongside every free agent. He can be reached at bsperos1@gmail.com.