NFL Week 10 Thursday night Bettors Guide: Bengals at Ravens

BENGALS at RAVENS

8:15 p.m., Ravens by 6 ½, 52 ½

HANK’S HONEYS: These games are always close. Over the last five head-to-heads, three have gone to the Ravens SU, but the teams have been separated by just two points overall. Divisional dogs are always a good bet in the NFC North, cashing over 56% over the last nine years, so the value has to be on the Bengals catching this many points. It’s also a much bigger game for the Bengals, who made it clear they are still thinking playoffs by trading for Khalil Herbert with Zach Moss lost for the season, while holding onto Tee Higggins. Herbert fits into the Cincy scheme nicely as someone who has averaged 4.8 yards per carry in his career with pass catching ability.

Baltimore’s blowout of the Broncos last week was a bit deceiving in that Bo Nix missed several wide-open receivers against the Ravens’ vulnerable secondary early in that game. Joe Burrow won’t fail to take advantage of those chances if presented to him. He threw for 392 yards and five TDs in that first meeting with Ja’Marr Chase catching 10 passes for 192 yards and a pair of TDs. Burrow’s worst games have come against teams that can apply pressure but that hasn’t been the Ravens’ game so far.

This one should buck the trend of Thursday night unders. The Ravens are 8-1 toward the over this season, the Bengals 6-3. Both have better offenses than defenses and know they will have to put up some points to get a win. They combined for 76 regulation points in their first meeting before the Ravens won in overtime. Cincy’s bottom tier defense isn’t going to stop Lamar Jackson or Derrick Henry but Burrow is very good chasing points.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bengals and the over.