John Morales says he's worried about 2025 hurricane season after NWS suffers loss of staff and resources
2025’s hurricane season is already unprecedented. Never have we faced the combustible mix of a lack of meteorological data and the less accurate forecasts that follow, with an elevated propensity for the rapidly intensifying hurricanes of the manmade climate change era. Am I worried? You bet I am! And so are hundreds of other scientists, including all living former U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) directors, who fear a “needless loss of life” as a result of the loss of staff and resources at NWS brought on since January. Central and southern Florida’s NWS offices are currently 19 to 39 percent understaffed. While that might be barely enough on a sunny day, long stretches of impending severe weather—like a hurricane—could lead to mistakes by tired skeleton crews can only work so many back-to-back shifts. Across the country, less data is being collected by fewer weather balloon launches as a result of the staff shortages. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) isn’t facing such a severe scarcity of employees. But there are critical departments linked to NHC’s mission that have been seriously impacted. Namely, NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters saw two flight directors and one electronic engineer terminated in late February. Hurricane flights also include the Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron. But should NOAA be unable to fly as many missions, there is a real risk of hurricane specialists occasionally “flying blind.” You might think that attempting to forecast a storm’s track and intensity with limited data is a thing of the past. But it happened just two years ago. And the result wasn’t pretty. In 2023, Hurricane Otis struck very near Acapulco, Mexico, as a monster 165-mile-per-hour category 5 cyclone. About 24 hours before landfall, NHC was predicting it would do so as 70 mile-per-hour tropical storm! A big reason the forecast was so badly botched was not having timely reconnaissance data, because the hurricane hunters didn’t reach Otis as it was developing. Historically, recon flights simply haven’t been scheduled as often in the eastern Pacific. In 2025 in the Atlantic, there is a risk for fewer scheduled or downright cancelled recon missions. In a nightmare scenario, this could lead to another Otis. Meanwhile, missing meteorological data is showing up in weather forecast models in the form of less accurate forecasts. It’s tough to project a two or three-month trend through the end of hurricane season, but it certainly is cause for concern. Models can’t be readily adjusted or improved because meteorological laboratories under the NOAA umbrella are being bludgeoned by budget cuts and layoffs. More broadly, the future of most academic and government scientific research in the United States is in jeopardy. This hurricane season’s forecasts call for another busy year. NOAA is forecasting a 90 percent chance of an at-or-above-average season. Colorado State University, the legacy seasonal prediction entity, is forecasting 17 tropical storms for the Atlantic out of which 9 would become hurricanes, including four major hurricanes. The average number of hurricanes forecast for 2025 when considering the two dozen outlooks as seen in the image below is 8. In preparation for this season, know your home’s vulnerability and potential exposure to wind and water. Make a plan and be ready. I’ll be with you again this year on NBC6.
2025’s hurricane season is already unprecedented. Never have we faced the combustible mix of a lack of meteorological data and the less accurate forecasts that follow, with an elevated propensity for the rapidly intensifying hurricanes of the manmade climate change era.
Am I worried? You bet I am! And so are hundreds of other scientists, including all living former U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) directors, who fear a “needless loss of life” as a result of the loss of staff and resources at NWS brought on since January.
Central and southern Florida’s NWS offices are currently 19 to 39 percent understaffed. While that might be barely enough on a sunny day, long stretches of impending severe weather—like a hurricane—could lead to mistakes by tired skeleton crews can only work so many back-to-back shifts. Across the country, less data is being collected by fewer weather balloon launches as a result of the staff shortages.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) isn’t facing such a severe scarcity of employees. But there are critical departments linked to NHC’s mission that have been seriously impacted. Namely, NOAA’s Hurricane Hunters saw two flight directors and one electronic engineer terminated in late February.
Hurricane flights also include the Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron. But should NOAA be unable to fly as many missions, there is a real risk of hurricane specialists occasionally “flying blind.”
You might think that attempting to forecast a storm’s track and intensity with limited data is a thing of the past. But it happened just two years ago. And the result wasn’t pretty.
In 2023, Hurricane Otis struck very near Acapulco, Mexico, as a monster 165-mile-per-hour category 5 cyclone. About 24 hours before landfall, NHC was predicting it would do so as 70 mile-per-hour tropical storm!
A big reason the forecast was so badly botched was not having timely reconnaissance data, because the hurricane hunters didn’t reach Otis as it was developing.
Historically, recon flights simply haven’t been scheduled as often in the eastern Pacific.
In 2025 in the Atlantic, there is a risk for fewer scheduled or downright cancelled recon missions. In a nightmare scenario, this could lead to another Otis.
Meanwhile, missing meteorological data is showing up in weather forecast models in the form of less accurate forecasts. It’s tough to project a two or three-month trend through the end of hurricane season, but it certainly is cause for concern.
Models can’t be readily adjusted or improved because meteorological laboratories under the NOAA umbrella are being bludgeoned by budget cuts and layoffs. More broadly, the future of most academic and government scientific research in the United States is in jeopardy.
This hurricane season’s forecasts call for another busy year.
NOAA is forecasting a 90 percent chance of an at-or-above-average season.
Colorado State University, the legacy seasonal prediction entity, is forecasting 17 tropical storms for the Atlantic out of which 9 would become hurricanes, including four major hurricanes.
The average number of hurricanes forecast for 2025 when considering the two dozen outlooks as seen in the image below is 8.
In preparation for this season, know your home’s vulnerability and potential exposure to wind and water. Make a plan and be ready.
I’ll be with you again this year on NBC6.
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