How Patriots have specifically regressed, improved this season under Jerod Mayo

It wasn’t expected to be this way.

After promoting linebackers coach Jerod Mayo to head coach and defensive line coach DeMarcus Covington to defensive coordinator and retaining cornerbacks coach Mike Pellegrino and safeties coach Brian Belichick, the defense was supposed to carry the Patriots in 2024.

But the defense has severely regressed under Mayo and Covington, while an offense led by an almost entirely new staff and a rookie quarterback has actually improved from last season.

Record-wise, the Patriots are set to have an identical season to last year. The Patriots went 4-13 last season and at 3-9 through 12 weeks, they’ll be lucky to win one more game while facing a difficult schedule.

Let’s take a closer look to see how the Patriots have improved and regressed from last season.

OFFENSE

2023 top offensive players

QB Mac Jones
RB Ezekiel Elliott
WR DeVante Parker
WR DeMario Douglas
TE Hunter Henry
TE Mike Gesicki
LT Trent Brown
LG Cole Strange
C David Andrews
RG Sidy Sow
RT Mike Onwenu
QB Bailey Zappe
RB Rhamondre Stevenson
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster
OL Vederian Lowe
OL Atonio Mafi

2024 top offensive players

QB Drake Maye
RB Rhamondre Stevenson
WR Kayshon Boutte
WR DeMario Douglas
TE Hunter Henry
TE Austin Hooper
LT Vederian Lowe
LG Michael Jordan
C Ben Brown
RG Mike Onwenu
RT Demontrey Jacobs
QB Jacoby Brissett
WR Ja’Lynn Polk
WR Kendrick Bourne
WR K.J. Osborn
OL Layden Robinson

Of the 16 players who played the most offensive snaps in 2023 and 2024, there’s carryover with just five players: Stevenson, Douglas, Henry, Lowe and Onwenu. And Stevenson had fewer snaps than Elliott at running back, and Lowe didn’t finish among the top five offensive linemen in snaps in 2023.

Jones, Elliott, Parker, Gesicki, Brown, Zappe, Smith-Schuster and Mafi are all off the team. Strange is only now coming back from an injury suffered late last season, Andrews suffered a season-ending shoulder injury early this year, and Sow hasn’t settled among the starting offensive line, though he did replace Jacobs at right tackle in Sunday’s loss and played well.

2023 Offense

PPG 13.9
YPG 276.9
YPP 4.6
EPA/play -0.26
Pass YPG 180.5
Pass YPP 5.1
EPA/dropback -0.23
QBP% 35.9%
Sack% 7.9%
Rush YPG 95.7
Rush YPP 3.9
Stuffed% 18.6%
EPA/rush -0.13
Turnovers/game 1.7

2024 Offense

PPG: 16.4
YPG 280.2
YPP 4.6
EPA/play -0.16
Pass YPG 167.3
Pass YPP 4.7
EPA/dropback -0.08
QBP% 42.2%
Sack% 9.2%
Rush YPG 112.8
Rush YPP 4.4
Stuffed% 16.1%
EPA/rush -0.14
Turnovers/game 1.3

The 2024 Patriots, with Alex Van Pelt at offensive coordinator, are both scoring more and gaining more yards than the 2023 squad, which had Bill O’Brien as their OC. They’ve also been more efficient overall and on dropbacks in EPA per play, which measures how a team performs compared to expectations on a per-play basis.

The rushing yards per game are a bit skewed because they include Maye’s scrambles. That’s reflected in the efficiency scores, however.

Even with Maye’s turnover issues, the Patriots are still giving the ball away at a lower rate than last season.

The Patriots’ offensive line has been significantly worse this season, allowing pressure and sacks at a much higher clip. That’s not a major surprise. Brown and Andrews provided a higher level of play at left tackle and center, and Sow was a better linemate for Onwenu than Jacobs and Robinson have been.

DEFENSE

2023 top defensive players

DT Christian Barmore
DT Davon Godchaux
DE Deatrich Wise
DE Keion White
OLB Anfernee Jennings
LB Ja’Whaun Bentley
LB Jahlani Tavai
CB Myles Bryant
CB Jonathan Jones
S Kyle Dugger
S Jabrill Peppers
DT Lawrence Guy
CB JC Jackson
CB Shaun Wade
S Jalen Mills

2024 top defensive players

DT Davon Godchaux
DT Daniel Ekuale
DE Keion White
OLB Anfernee Jennings
LB Jahlani Tavai
LB Christian Elliss
CB Jonathan Jones
CB Christian Gonzalez
CB Marcus Jones
S Jaylinn Hawkins
S Kyle Dugger
DT Jeremiah Pharms Jr.
DE Deatrich Wise Jr.
LB Raekwon McMillan
S Marte Mapu

Of the 15 players who played the most offensive snaps in 2023 and 2024, there’s carryover with seven players: Godchaux, White, Jennings, Tavai, Jonathan Jones, Dugger and Wise. The Patriots have missed Barmore, who returned in Week 11, Bentley, who is out for the season, and Peppers, who was activated off of the commissioner’s exempt list this week. They did gain Gonzalez and Marcus Jones, however. It’s not a complete trade-off, and the defensive personnel has been weakened this season, but the upgrade at cornerback has been sizable.

Bryant, Guy, Jackson, Wade and Mills all were not retained this season. It didn’t make sense to bring back Guy, but attempts to replace him have been mixed.

The Patriots moved on from defensive guru Bill Belichick, and his son, Steve Belichick, left to become the Washington Huskies’ defensive coordinator.

2023 Defense

PPG 21.5
YPG 301.6
YPP 4.7
EPA/play -0.12
Pass YPG 208.4
Pass YPP 5.8
EPA/dropback 0.026
QBP% 33.8%
Sack% 5.7%
Rush YPG 93.2
Rush YPP 3.3
Stuff% 15.0%
EPA/rush -0.19
Takeaways/game 1.1

2024 Defense

PPG 23.5
YPG 347.5
YPP 5.6
EPA/play 0.00
Pass YPG 224.4
Pass YPP 6.7
EPA/dropback 0.18
QBP% 30.2%
Sack% 6.4%
Rush YPG 123.1
Rush YPP 4.3
Stuff% 16.6%
EPA/rush -0.09
Takeaways/game 0.8

The Patriots’ defense has been worse in nearly every metric this season, and that includes pass defense despite the fact that Gonzalez and Marcus Jones are healthy and White has taken on a bigger role as a second-year player.

It’s notable to see that the Patriots have been more aggressive this season, as evidenced by their higher sack and stuff rates. But remember that nine of those sacks came in one game against the Bears. Outside of that game, the 2024 Patriots have a 4.7% sack rate.

Concerns that losing Bill and Steve Belichick would weaken the defense have been realized.

The Patriots could typically count on a Belichick-led defense to rank highly in takeaways. Injuries have not helped, but losing Bill Belichick’s overall defensive prowess and Steve Belichick’s playcalling abilities have clearly made an impact on this year’s unit.