Germany’s Bitcoin Sell-Off: 88% of 50,000 BTC Liquidated – Is $50,000 or $70,000 Next?  

• The German government has intensified its Bitcoin sales as 84% of the 50,000 BTC seized from a movie piracy website in 2013 has been liquidated. 

• Crypto analyst lauds the Bitcoin market for the ability to hold its price at just around $60k despite the ongoing selling pressure led by the German government and the Mt. Gox repayment. 

The German government has commenced an operation to liquidate hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin (BTC) seized from movie piracy website operators, Movie2k.to in 2013. In January 2024, the police in the eastern German state of Saxony announced that almost 50,000 Bitcoins ($2.2 billion at that time) were seized.

According to Arkham Intelligence, a firm that tracks movements from a Bitcoin wallet operated by the Country’s Federal Criminal Police Office, the seized Bitcoins started moving as far back as 2013. However, the volume of liquidation has become significantly high in the past couple of months. 

The Intensity of the Bitcoin Selling Pressure 

In June 2024, 900 BTC ($52 million) was sold by the German police. On July 4, the authorities also moved 1,300 BTC ($76 million) and subsequently transferred another 1,700 BTC ($99 million) as we earlier reported. Four days later, on July 8, the German government liquidated $155 million worth of Bitcoin in separate transactions. 

Today the German Government sent 2738.7 BTC ($155.3M) to likely exchanges/market makers including Kraken, Cumberland, 139Po (likely deposit for institutional/OTC service) and address bc1qu. Of this, 1533 BTC ($87.6M) has been sent in the past hour. Prior to today, the German Government has interacted with neither the Cumberland address nor the bc1qu address.

On July 12, the German authorities resumed the voluminous sales, liquidating of 3,200 Bitcoin. Firstly, three separate transactions of 400 Bitcoin each were made to Coinbase, Kraken, and Bitstamp. Later, another 1000 Bitcoin and 500 Bitcoin were transferred to two unknown addresses.

According to our investigation, a total of 10,620 BTC ($615 million) were transferred to Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, Flow Traders, and two unknown addresses on July 11. After this, the German government’s wallet was temporarily reduced to less than 5000 BTC, however, some assets were transferred back to reposition the amount held to 9,000 BTC. 

Analyst Comments on the Ongoing Liquidation

Commenting on this, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe lauded the capacity of the Bitcoin price to still hold between $57k and $60k despite the liquidation of 84.4% of the 50,000 BTC originally owned. 

Saxony, a German State, has sold almost all seized Bitcoin. They held $3.5B of Bitcoin (50000 $BTC) and are only left with approximately $300 million, likely to be sold today.

It’s incredible that this sell pressure has been absorbed and that Bitcoin’s price is around $60K. pic.twitter.com/AFBhYZq3wE

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 12, 2024

Prior to the recent liquidation, a member of the German Bundestag Joana Cotar announced her displeasure, advising the government to hold the asset as a strategic reserve currency. To show her seriousness, Cotar claimed to have written to “the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Finance Minister Christian Lindner and Saxony Minister President Michael Kretschmer”, informing them that selling the token is counterproductive. 

Collectively, crypto analysts admit that the German government sales coupled with the Mt. Gox repayment have had a gross impact on the market sentiment, dragging the price below $55k at a point to record its lowest since February 2024. According to CoinGecko data, $170 billion in combined market cap was shed off at one point in just 24 hours. 

Per our observation, the Bitcoin price could stage a massive bullish reversal into $70k once it successfully absorbs the ongoing selling pressure. However, losing its capacity could be fatal, as the price could go below $50k. 

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $58k after surging by 1.76% in the last 24 hours and 2.6% in the last seven days.