Film study: Why Bears QB Caleb Williams has regressed the past two games
Caleb Williams is heading in a direction that’s unfamiliar to him but all too common for Bears quarterbacks — backward.Williams has regressed the past two games. He’s been inaccurate, posting the second-worst adjusted completion percentage in the NFL the last two weeks after having the fourth-best in Games 4-6. The offense has sputtered, scoring two touchdowns and three field goals on 23 drives since coming off a bye.In Sunday's 29-9 loss to the Cardinals, Williams went 22-for-41 for 217 yards. Even that final line was cosmetic — he went 7-for-12 for 52 yards in a garbage-time fourth quarter. His struggles continued Sunday, and here's why:Missing the easy onesWilliams isn’t hitting the easy throws.Through nine games, Williams has thrown 41 screen passes, tied for the third-most in the NFL. His completion percentage of 78 is second-worst among quarterbacks who have played at least half the time, trailing only the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts.His Pro Football Focus grade on screens is second-lowest, ahead of only the Cardinals’ Kyler Murray, and his 5.8 yards per attempt are the 13th-fewest. Williams still hasn’t mastered the timing of screens, nor has offensive coordinator Shane Waldron shown a knack for springing them at the right time.“The screen game is always about timing,” Eberflus said late last month. “You have to have really good timing on it with the blocks of the lineman (in the NFL). It’s a little different in college where they can be six, seven, eight, 10 yards downfield …“You get what you emphasize. If you emphasize and work on the timing of it, I think that’s when it’s good.”It's not good. Williams needs to find a way to convert easy throws, be they screens or checkdowns. Sunday, Williams didn’t target Cole Kmet once, and found fellow tight end Gerald Everett for five yards on his only target. He completed six passes for 31 yards to D”Andre Swift and two for 8 yards to fellow running back Roschon Johnson.In Williams’ first six games, he completed 10 passes per game to tight ends or running backs and 9.3 to receivers. In the last two games, he’s completed five per game to tight ends or running backs and 10.5 to receivers.Starting slowWilliams has been stuck in a vicious cycle the last two weeks. Poor offensive play has given the Bears a lead for just 25 seconds — right before the Commanders’ Hail Mary. Forced to play from behind, Williams has been less content making easy throws. He shouldn’t be.The Bears remain the worst first-quarter team in the NFL, averaging a league-low 3.53 yards per play. They’re even worse on their opening drive, gaining 18 yards or more on their first possession in only half their eight games.Sunday, the Bears uncharacteristically gained three first-drive first downs before, positioned at the Cardinals’ 39, Swift ran for -2 yards and then caught a pass for four. On third-and-eight, tackle Larry Borom was flagged for illegal formation. On third-and-13, Williams was sacked.“We need to get ready to play and ready to score points from Drive 1, from Play 1,” receiver Rome Odunze said Monday. “We have gotten ourselves into some negative plays.”Williams has thrown for nine touchdowns this season — but only one in the first quarter. His rushing yards in the first frame are half as many as his next-closest quarter. The Bears need to explore ways to change up his pregame routine. What he’s doing isn’t working.Left: not rightWhen his teammates were getting to know Williams during training camp, they couldn’t stop talking about how he’d contort his body and throw a strike when rolling to his left.“He has that one throw rolling to the left all the time,” running back Khalil Herbert said in August. “And he always finds someone on the sideline to toe-tap on the side.”Not lately.Sunday, Williams threw 11 passes that landed outside the left hashmark. Only two were completed. One was the Bears’ longest completion of the day — a 44-yarder to Odunze. But even that came with an asterisk: Odunze was running wide open on broken Cardinals coverage.Williams has an average gain of 6.48 yards on throws deep left, which is the second-worst average in the NFL. One reason why: the Bears’ lack of success running the ball to the right. They rank 28th in yards per play running over the right tackle, which takes away opportunities for Williams to bootleg in the opposite direction.Trying to do too muchWilliams has, on average, exactly 2 seconds between when he catches the ball and either throws it or has the pocket collapse on him. The Bengals and Dolphins are the only team with less time.Williams is too willing to escape the pocket and look for receivers. That’s exactly what the Cardinals wanted him to do — worry about the pass rushers not the receivers downfield.During the Bears’ first drive Sunday, Williams took a shotgun snap, rolled all the way from the right hash to the left sideline, then circled back toward the middle of the field and released a throw outside the right hash. It fell incomplete and Keenan
Caleb Williams is heading in a direction that’s unfamiliar to him but all too common for Bears quarterbacks — backward.
Williams has regressed the past two games. He’s been inaccurate, posting the second-worst adjusted completion percentage in the NFL the last two weeks after having the fourth-best in Games 4-6. The offense has sputtered, scoring two touchdowns and three field goals on 23 drives since coming off a bye.
In Sunday's 29-9 loss to the Cardinals, Williams went 22-for-41 for 217 yards. Even that final line was cosmetic — he went 7-for-12 for 52 yards in a garbage-time fourth quarter. His struggles continued Sunday, and here's why:
Missing the easy ones
Williams isn’t hitting the easy throws.
Through nine games, Williams has thrown 41 screen passes, tied for the third-most in the NFL. His completion percentage of 78 is second-worst among quarterbacks who have played at least half the time, trailing only the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts.
His Pro Football Focus grade on screens is second-lowest, ahead of only the Cardinals’ Kyler Murray, and his 5.8 yards per attempt are the 13th-fewest. Williams still hasn’t mastered the timing of screens, nor has offensive coordinator Shane Waldron shown a knack for springing them at the right time.
“The screen game is always about timing,” Eberflus said late last month. “You have to have really good timing on it with the blocks of the lineman (in the NFL). It’s a little different in college where they can be six, seven, eight, 10 yards downfield …
“You get what you emphasize. If you emphasize and work on the timing of it, I think that’s when it’s good.”
It's not good. Williams needs to find a way to convert easy throws, be they screens or checkdowns. Sunday, Williams didn’t target Cole Kmet once, and found fellow tight end Gerald Everett for five yards on his only target. He completed six passes for 31 yards to D”Andre Swift and two for 8 yards to fellow running back Roschon Johnson.
In Williams’ first six games, he completed 10 passes per game to tight ends or running backs and 9.3 to receivers. In the last two games, he’s completed five per game to tight ends or running backs and 10.5 to receivers.
Starting slow
Williams has been stuck in a vicious cycle the last two weeks. Poor offensive play has given the Bears a lead for just 25 seconds — right before the Commanders’ Hail Mary. Forced to play from behind, Williams has been less content making easy throws. He shouldn’t be.
The Bears remain the worst first-quarter team in the NFL, averaging a league-low 3.53 yards per play. They’re even worse on their opening drive, gaining 18 yards or more on their first possession in only half their eight games.
Sunday, the Bears uncharacteristically gained three first-drive first downs before, positioned at the Cardinals’ 39, Swift ran for -2 yards and then caught a pass for four. On third-and-eight, tackle Larry Borom was flagged for illegal formation. On third-and-13, Williams was sacked.
“We need to get ready to play and ready to score points from Drive 1, from Play 1,” receiver Rome Odunze said Monday. “We have gotten ourselves into some negative plays.”
Williams has thrown for nine touchdowns this season — but only one in the first quarter. His rushing yards in the first frame are half as many as his next-closest quarter. The Bears need to explore ways to change up his pregame routine. What he’s doing isn’t working.
Left: not right
When his teammates were getting to know Williams during training camp, they couldn’t stop talking about how he’d contort his body and throw a strike when rolling to his left.
“He has that one throw rolling to the left all the time,” running back Khalil Herbert said in August. “And he always finds someone on the sideline to toe-tap on the side.”
Not lately.
Sunday, Williams threw 11 passes that landed outside the left hashmark. Only two were completed. One was the Bears’ longest completion of the day — a 44-yarder to Odunze. But even that came with an asterisk: Odunze was running wide open on broken Cardinals coverage.
Williams has an average gain of 6.48 yards on throws deep left, which is the second-worst average in the NFL. One reason why: the Bears’ lack of success running the ball to the right. They rank 28th in yards per play running over the right tackle, which takes away opportunities for Williams to bootleg in the opposite direction.
Trying to do too much
Williams has, on average, exactly 2 seconds between when he catches the ball and either throws it or has the pocket collapse on him. The Bengals and Dolphins are the only team with less time.
Williams is too willing to escape the pocket and look for receivers. That’s exactly what the Cardinals wanted him to do — worry about the pass rushers not the receivers downfield.
During the Bears’ first drive Sunday, Williams took a shotgun snap, rolled all the way from the right hash to the left sideline, then circled back toward the middle of the field and released a throw outside the right hash. It fell incomplete and Keenan Allen was flagged for offensive pass interference. Fellow receiver DJ Moore, who’d run a route along the left side, limped into the Cardinals sideline mid-play, though he stayed in the game.
Williams was “all over the place” when running, Cardinals linebacker Zaven Collins said. Williams hasn’t been effective, though: he’s got the sixth-worst PFF passing grade among starters when pressured.
“The plan — rushing coverage and not living on the edge,”: Cardinals edge rusher LJ Collier said. “And taking away his first read, keeping his eyes down.”
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