Expert predicts 60% chance of May approval for Spot Ethereum ETFs

The cryptocurrency landscape is buzzing with anticipation as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) hovers over the fate of Spot Ethereum ETFs. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart, with a keen eye on market dynamics, estimates a 60% likelihood of approval in May. However, he cautions that the SEC, notorious for its deliberative approach, could postpone the decision. The critical date circled in the calendar is May 23, when the 240-day review period for proposals from Ark/21Shares and VanEck concludes.

The Waiting Game: Anticipating the SEC’s Move

The race for Spot Ethereum ETF approval is not a solo run. Major players like BlackRock, Grayscale, Ark 21Shares, and VanEck are jostling for position. This suspense is not new to market spectators. The SEC’s recent delay of BlackRock and Grayscale’s Ether ETF decisions is in line with its history of cautious steps. Despite the green light given to a series of Bitcoin ETFs earlier this month, the Ethereum ETFs remain in regulatory limbo.

Grayscale is playing a familiar hand, attempting to transform its Ethereum Trust (ETHE) into an ETF, mirroring its approach with Bitcoin. Craig Salm, Grayscale’s Chief Legal Officer, eyes summer 2024 for a potential SEC nod. Following an initial setback with its Bitcoin ETF application, Grayscale’s persistence paid off, influencing the landscape for future crypto ETFs.

The Ethereum ETF Path: A Tricky Terrain

Scott Johnsson from Van Buren Capital sums up the situation aptly, noting the “nuance” in the current Ethereum ETF landscape. While the long-term outlook for Ethereum spot ETFs seems optimistic, the SEC holds significant sway in the decision-making process. This May, they could either prompt Ark/21Shares or VanEck to withdraw their applications, a move that could indicate impending approval, or opt for a denial. The SEC’s decision-making process is not just about ticking boxes; it’s a complex interplay between market readiness, regulatory comfort, and strategic timing.

The distinction between Bitcoin and Ethereum in the eyes of the SEC is stark. Seyffart points out that the SEC’s slower pace with Ethereum as opposed to Bitcoin could be due to their inherent differences. The existence of Ether futures ETFs, however, casts a hopeful light, having played a role in the approval of Bitcoin ETFs.

As the May deadline approaches, the industry watches for clues from the SEC. Filings, responses from issuers, and regulatory signals will paint a clearer picture of the SEC’s stance. However, the agency’s past behavior suggests it may steer clear of court intervention and opt for direct approval, as suggested by SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce. She emphasizes the need for the SEC to align its approach with established precedents, particularly in the context of Spot Ethereum ETFs.

The journey of Ethereum ETFs is reminiscent of last year’s events around Spot Bitcoin ETFs, where issuers like BlackRock were in the early stages of their applications, and the Grayscale decision was pending. This parallel hints at a similar trajectory for Ethereum ETFs, with a mix of anticipation and uncertainty.

While the buzz around Ethereum ETFs grows louder, the SEC’s decision remains a wild card. Seyffart’s 60% probability reflects a cautious optimism, tempered by the regulatory body’s history of deliberate decision-making. As the crypto community looks towards May 23, the date is not just a deadline but a potential turning point in the saga of Ethereum ETFs.