East metro seats will be crucial as DFL, GOP vie for control of Minnesota House
The contest for the House will center around districts in the Twin Cities metro suburbs, northeast Minnesota’s Iron Range, and in a few rural regional centers.
Two competitive east metro Minnesota House seats are among a handful around the state that could determine whether the Legislature will remain in Democrats’ hands this fall.
If Republicans want to end one-party control, they won’t just have to gain seats — they will also have to hold on to the ones they have. One area that could prove crucial is two House districts that include the cities of Hastings, Cottage Grove and Lake Elmo, and rural south Washington County.
GOP Reps. Mark Wiens of Lake Elmo and Shane Hudella of Hastings aren’t running for reelection in these districts, and their potential GOP replacements face well-funded, well-organized DFL opponents. They won by just hundreds of votes in 2022, when the same voters elected DFL Sen. Judy Seeberger of Afton.
All the candidates seem to agree: the margins will be close. They’re campaigning on the record of two years of DFL-led state government, which significantly grew spending but passed popular programs like universal free school meals.
District 41B
In District 41B, which includes Hastings and parts of Cottage Grove, Hastings City Council member Jen Fox is running as a DFLer against Republican business owner Tom Dippel, who ran for state Senate in 2022 and lost to now-Sen. Seeberger.
Dippel is hoping an economy and business-focused message will resonate with voters who saw DFL-controlled state government grow spending over a two-year period by 40% as inflation squeezed family budgets.
“We’re out all the time and talk to many, many voters, knocked on many doors, and we hear all the same fundamental things,” he said. “People believe that the cost of everything has gone up, and they don’t like the tax increases and spending increases.”
Meanwhile, Fox said she believes voters care most about funding public education and making sure companies treat employees fairly.
“Our local school districts can’t function and support students and teachers without the support at the capitol for public education,” she said, later adding: “Inflation is relevant and important, and we need to we need to help middle-class families succeed and make sure that we’re not taking resources away from workers.”
The race for 41B could be very close. In 2022 Hudela won by a little over 400 votes. Already it’s one of the most expensive Legislative races in the state, according to an analysis by MinnPost. As of early October, more than $165,000 had been spent on Fox’s campaign, compared to Dippel’s more than $112,000.
One thing that unites the candidates? All have said they’re committed to getting more funding to clean up “forever chemicals” pollution left over from 3M throughout Washington County.
District 41A
The race to replace Rep. Wiens in District 41A also is sure to be a close one. Wiens won by 128 votes in 2022 and decided not to run again — instead seeking a seat on the Washington County Board.
Business owner and Cottage Grove City Councilor Wayne Johnson is the Republican candidate. Running for the Democrats is former St. Paul Police officer and Afton City Council member Lucia Wroblewski.
Spending on these candidates is among the highest in the state, per MinnPost. In early October, it ranked fourth in all races statewide: $208,000 on Wroblewski and $133,696 on Johnson. Those numbers are sure to rise
Wroblewski says her priorities include supporting public education and addressing a “broken” health care system.
The ex-police officer, who says she has an independent streak, is skeptical of GOP calls for returning “balance” to state government and says programs such as universal meals and the child tax credit were widely popular.
“The vast, vast, vast majority of Minnesotans, I think, agree with that,” she said. “I mean, who can disagree with things like that?
Johnson is focused on an economic message as well, critical of the DFL’s time running state government.
“What I’ve heard from day one is the number one issue is economy,” Johnson said. “Businesses are feeling left out and feeling like they’re just the constant piggy bank for the DFL.”
Abortion
And on abortion?
It’s not first issue candidates in 41A and 41B talk about, but both Fox and Wroblewski say they support reproductive freedom.
Dippel said the issue is settled as Minnesota already has court cases and laws protecting the right, though he painted the DFL as extreme on the issue. Johnson had a similar stance.
State of play
In the most recent legislative session, the DFL held a 70-64 majority over Republicans in the Minnesota House. After recent retirements, the balance is 68-63. If the GOP wants to wrest control, they’ll have to reach a minimum of 68 seats.
The contest for the House will center around districts in the Twin Cities metro suburbs, northeast Minnesota’s Iron Range, and in a few rural regional centers. Leaders in both parties recognize those districts as key.
In recent years, outer suburbs and exurban areas near the edge of the Twin Cities metro which were historically safe Republican seats have seen more DFL challenges. A lot of it has to do with Minnesota Democrats having more money than the state GOP, said Steven Schier, professor emeritus of political science at Carleton College.
“The DFL has significant resources the Republican caucuses and party lack … Those resources include candidate recruitment, funding, polling, all aspects of campaign operations,” he said. “They are able to create new arenas of competition and success that they didn’t have say 10 or more years ago.”
Election Day is Nov. 5.
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