CU Buffs vs. Utah football: How to watch, storylines and staff predictions

Utah (4-5, 1-5 Big 12) at Colorado (7-2, 5-1)

When/where: 10 a.m. Saturday/Folsom Field

TV/Radio: FOX/850 KOA

BetMGM Line: CU -10, 47.5 over/under

Weather: 52 degrees, partly sunny

Series History: CU trails 32-35-3 and has lost seven straight

Three storylines

Third downs: The CU offense is converting on third downs 42.5% of the time, a middle-of-the-pack rate that has the Buffs ranked 53rd nationally. Big sacks on Shedeur Sanders on early downs, sometimes putting the Buffs into third-and-longs, have not helped. Meanwhile, the Utes defense is first in the country with a 23.8% third-down conversion rate allowed. So something’s got to give on pivotal downs when CU has the ball. If the Utah defense can maintain its stoutness Saturday, the visitors might be able to hang around.

Stat padding: The Buffs have occasionally gotten greedy airing it out late in games this season when milking the clock should be a priority. It happened against NDSU in the season opener, and that trend appeared again in wins over CSU and last week at Texas Tech. Against the Bison and Red Raiders, it allowed CU’s opponent to have a chance late. The Buffs need to find a way to grind out tough yards on the ground, especially late. The tougher their opponents get during this run to the College Football Playoff, the more it will matter.

Aerial battle: Utah has a decent pass D, allowing 175 yards per game, which is second in the Big 12 and 18th nationally. The Buffs, behind soon-to-be first-round pick Shedeur Sanders, are first in the Big 12 and eighth nationally with 320.2 yards per game — and have only gotten better as the season has progressed. Will Sheppard and LaJohntay Wester are threats, alongside Heisman Trophy front-runner Travis Hunter, and Jimmy Horn Jr. remains potent. The only way Utah has a shot at upsetting the Buffs is if it can find a way to keep Sanders from getting into a rhythm. A subpar sack rate of 1.78 per game suggests that might be a problem for the Utes.

Predictions

Kyle Newman, sportswriter: CU 34, Utah 17

Regardless of the Utes nearly pulling an upset over BYU last week, this Buffs team is on a roll, and a team that’s won one game in conference so far isn’t going to stop them. Will Sheppard reels in two receiving TDs as Utah pays too much attention to Travis Hunter, and on defense, the CU front continues to eat. Cherry Creek alum Arden Walker’s strip-sack in the second quarter is the turning point.

Sean Keeler, sports columnist: CU 28, Utah 10

The Utes poured any petrol they could find into that BYU game … and still fell short. You come out of a November gut punch like that in one of two ways: with slumped shoulders and an eye toward the transfer portal, or swinging with whatever you’ve got left. Either way, whatever Utah’s got left — no Brant Kuithe, no Cam Rising, no Brandon Rose — won’t be nearly enough against a CU roster that can already smell a Big 12 title game weekend in Dallas cooking.

Matt Schubert, sports editor: CU 28, Utah 13

The Utes are battered, bruised and beaten. A season that was supposed to end with a trip to the Big 12 championship game is two losses away from ending on Thanksgiving weekend. As well as CU has played since losing to Kansas State, it’s hard to imagine a freshman quarterback (Isaac Wilson) coming into a frothing Folsom Field Big Noon kickoff and leaving a winner. Unless senior running back Micah Bernard throws on a cape for the Utes, this one is over entering the fourth quarter.

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