Crypto markets now at the mercy of Jerome Powell

Jerome Powell is the man who could make or break the crypto market right now. Everything hinges on his next move, and the tension is real. Wall Street is buzzing with rumors that the U.S. payroll growth might be revised down by a massive 600,000 jobs.

QCP pointed out that this kind of revision would be a big deal because it would show that the U.S. job market isn’t as strong as everyone thought. The real question is whether the Federal Reserve has been lagging behind reality. 

They’ve held off on cutting interest rates because the economy seemed strong and the job market was booming. But if those numbers were wrong, it could change everything.

Powell is expected to address this at the annual Jackson Hole event, but don’t hold your breath for a clear answer. There’s still a month before the next Fed meeting in September, so he might not say much. 

However, a big downward revision in the job numbers, or if Powell comes off too soft, could kill the current two-week equity rally and drag Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) below their support levels. 

Even without a revision, the Fed seems likely to cut rates in September. Right now, the market is pricing in 3.7 cuts in 2024 and 4.5 in 2025. But how the crypto market will react is the million-dollar question.

Bitcoin price predictions are all over the place

Not long ago, people were hyped when BTC/USD was near $70,000. But those days seem like a distant memory now. BTC is stuck in a descending channel, and there’s no clear trend. 

Big investors aren’t doing it like they used to, and miners are still trying to bounce back from the hit they took in April when the block subsidy halving happened.

Analyst CryptoCon is still holding out hope, though. He’s eyeing 2025 as the year BTC could hit around $200,000. “I look forward to selling as close to the top as possible,” he says, but he’s not doing it just yet. 

He believes higher prices are coming, with a peak expected in late 2025. He’s sticking to his guns on this prediction, using what he calls the “November 28th Cycles Theory.” 

According to this theory, key BTC price events happen within three weeks either side of November 28th every four years. 

This year, he’s confident that the market will still have a bumper 2025, which will produce the next long-term peak for Bitcoin.