College Football Playoff rankings: What to make of Boise State vs. the Big 12

The fourth edition of the College Football Playoff rankings did nothing to cool off one of the hottest topics in the sport: Whether Boise State, as the highest-ranked team from the Group of Five, could steal an opening-round bye from the Big 12.

Given the placement of teams in the rankings released Tuesday, that outcome is well within the realm of possibility — and something few could have foreseen when the 2024 season began with the presumption that the champions of the Power Four would receive the opening-round byes.

There were no changes at the top of the rankings, with undefeated Oregon in the No. 1 position again, followed by Ohio State, Texas and Penn State. (Indiana dropped five spots, to No. 10, after losing to the Buckeyes.)

The ACC improved its overall position at the expense of the SEC, which was hit by a series of upsets last weekend, and now has a path to place at least one, and perhaps two at-large teams into the field.

But the real intrigue can be found in the double-digit seeds, where No. 11 Boise State is well ahead of Arizona State, the highest-ranked team from the Big 12.

The Sun Devils climbed five spots, to No. 16, after their victory over Brigham Young and lead a contingent of five teams from the conference that includes No. 18 Iowa State, No. 19 BYU, No. 24 Kansas State and No. 25 Colorado.

The question that will play out over the coming fortnight is whether the Big 12 winner can overtake Boise State and grab the fourth and final bye given to the highest-ranked conference champions.

Without it, the Big 12’s lone participant likely would have to play on the road in the opening round against a team from the SEC or Big Ten.

The Broncos host Oregon State this week, then will probably face No. 22 UNLV in the Mountain West championship. If they win both, it’s difficult to see them dropping from the No. 11 position — especially if UNLV remains in the rankings through next week.

Could the Big 12 winner generate enough rocket fuel from winning the conference championship?

The Sun Devils face Arizona (4-7) this weekend, and a victory probably won’t improve their position any more than a win over Oregon State (5-6) would improve Boise State’s ranking.

Yes, teams between the Sun Devils and Broncos could lose, thereby allowing ASU to inch up and narrow the gap. But it certainly appears that Boise State will enter championship weekend ranked ahead of the Sun Devils by several spots.

And if the Broncos handle No. 22 UNLV while the Sun Devils beat No. 18 Iowa State, for example, would that difference in opponent ranking provide enough propulsion for ASU to overtake the Broncos? It’s possible but hardly certain.

The Big 12’s path to an opening-round bye might be wider if Iowa State wins the conference title. Why? Because the Cyclones play No. 24 Kansas State this weekend, then (probably) would face ASU in the title game.

Finishing the season with two wins over ranked teams could provide ISU with the lift needed to overtake Boise State, whereas Arizona State would only finish with one victory over a ranked opponent.

Two weekends remain before the playoff bracket is revealed on Dec. 8. That’s more than enough time for unexpected results to lay waste to everything we think we know.

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