College Football Playoff projections: Notre Dame looms large over the selection process

Expansion of the College Football Playoff is arguably the greatest competitive change in the sport’s history — more significant than the move from the Bowl Championship Series to the four-team CFP a decade ago. Each week, the Hotline will dive into the 12-team CFP race with a look at the frontrunners, bubble teams and key developments across the landscape.

With the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings fast approaching, narratives are rapidly taking shape.

Many involve the distribution of the seven at-large bids across the Power Four conferences:

— Could either the ACC or Big 12 receive more than one?

— Will either conference (or both) get shut out of the at-large field?

— Will the SEC and Big Ten combine to gobble six of the seven bids, or just five?

So much depends on a team that doesn’t compete in any of the four conferences.

So much depends on Notre Dame.

Because of their Independent status, the Irish are not eligible for one of the CFP’s automatic bids; they must qualify through the at-large pool.

If they make the cut, there will be six at-large bids for the Power Four, not seven. That’s an enormous difference, especially for the conference squeezed out by Notre Dame’s inclusion.

And the Irish (7-1) are tracking for a berth.

After the stunning loss to Northern Illinois in early September, they have won six in a row.

Their finishing schedule, which features Florida State, Virginia, Army and USC, is hardly daunting.

And perhaps most significantly, their Week 1 victory at Texas A&M is gaining heft by the week as the Aggies roll through the SEC.

Controversy is inevitable when the CFP selection committee releases the playoff pairings on Dec. 7, but we’ll save you some time: If the Irish 11-1 with a head-to-head win over an SEC contender, they are a lock.

And a team from the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten or SEC will be boxed out.

To the projections …

Automatic bids

The five highest-ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids to the CFP, with the top four earning opening-round byes. The best team from the Group of Five will be seeded according to its ranking.

1. Georgia (SEC). The Bulldogs face Florida this week in Jacksonville, then visit Mississippi before finishing with three consecutive (well-deserved) home games.

2. Oregon (Big Ten). For the first time, we are slightly skeptical of the Ducks facing Ohio State in the Big Ten championship. The Buckeyes looked vulnerable against Nebraska.

3. Clemson (ACC). There are four unbeaten teams in the ACC (in conference play): Miami, SMU, Pittsburgh and the Tigers. That number will shrink this weekend when the Panthers and Mustangs collide.

4. Brigham Young (Big 12). The way things are going in Provo, it’s easy to envision BYU pulling off a Hail Mary similar to what the Washington Commanders did Sunday against the Bears.

12. Boise State (Group of Five). The Broncos solidified their Group of Five frontrunner status with the victory at UNLV and caught a break with Navy’s loss to Notre Dame.

At-large qualifiers

The seven highest-ranked non-champions will receive at-large bids. There is no limit to the number of at-large teams from a particular conference.

ACC: none. One of several issues for the ACC is the absence of an elite non-conference victory by any of the contenders. That could give the selection committee justification to ignore any two-loss ACC teams.

Big 12: none. If you thought the conference ate its own in October, just wait for the stretch run. The gorging is about to go next-level.

Big Ten: Indiana, Ohio State and Penn State. The potential for tiebreaker chaos is high considering Oregon, Indiana and Penn State don’t play each other.

SEC: Tennessee, Texas and Texas A&M. Prediction: At some point in the next week, the SEC media machine will suggest the conference deserves four at-large bids. Just you wait. It’s coming.

Independent: Notre Dame. The Irish have company in the race for at-large bids among Independents, courtesy of Washington State, which isn’t eligible as an automatic qualifier from the Pac-12.

Bubble teams

Expansion of the CFP has created room for a bubble comparable to the NCAA Tournament. The size of the bubble will ebb and flow throughout the season based on the latest results.

ACC: Miami, Pittsburgh and SMU. The result that could end up kneecapping the ACC’s case for an at-large berth and aiding the Big 12’s argument: SMU’s home loss to Brigham Young.

Big 12: Colorado, Iowa State and Kansas State. The Wildcats are the key link in the chain given that they will have played each of the other three contenders by the end of the season — all on the road, no less. So far, they have beaten Colorado and lost to BYU.

Big Ten: none. A significant rift is developing in the Big Ten between the top four and the masses, which was easy to envision — just with Michigan and Indiana switching places.

SEC: Alabama and LSU. The Nov. 9 showdown in Baton Rouge of these two-loss teams will be billed as a playoff elimination game for the loser. Don’t believe it — at least in Alabama’s case.

Independent: Washington State. The Cougars are 7-1, will be favored in their final four games and have victories over Washington and Texas Tech. With an 11-1 finish, they will be part of the at-large discussion.

Projected matchups

The No. 5 through 12 seeds will play opening-round games on the campus of the higher seed, with the winners advancing to the quarterfinals on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. (The semifinals are Jan. 9 and 10, followed by the championship game 10 days later.)

No. 8 Texas vs. No. 9 Tennessee. The Longhorns’ resume is weaker than it appears given that Michigan and Oklahoma are no better than mediocre. Their best win, in our view, came Saturday in Nashville. Winner plays No. 1 Georgia.

No. 6 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Notre Dame. For better or worse, there is no mechanism in the seeding process to avoid opening-round rematches of regular-season matchups. Winner plays No. 2 Oregon

No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 11 Indiana. Imagine the joy in Big Ten country if the conference sends more teams to the CFP than the SEC. We don’t expect that outcome, but it’s feasible because of Indiana’s ascent. Winner plays No. 3 Clemson

No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 Boise State. Let’s take a moment to acknowledge Ohio State’s finishing schedule, which features Penn State, Indiana and Michigan, followed by (potentially) the Big Ten title game. Winner plays No. 4 Brigham Young.

Looking ahead: Week 10

Each week, the Hotline will examine a handful of games that figure to impact the CFP race for automatic and at-large bids.

(All times Pacific)

Ohio State at Penn State (9 a.m. on Fox): There’s more pressure on the Buckeyes, who have one loss, than the Nittany Lions, who are undefeated — except that Penn State has lost seven in a row in the series.

Oregon at Michigan (12:30 p.m. on CBS): This game looked more attractive when the schedule was released than it does now, with the Wolverines sitting on three losses and eliminated from the CFP. Worth monitoring on the off chance it’s close in the final minutes.

Texas Tech at Iowa State (12:30 p.m. on ESPN): The Big 12 is absolute mayhem, but we would be surprised if the undefeated Cyclones lose Saturday considering they had two weeks to prepare and the Red Raiders are coming off back-to-back losses.

Pittsburgh at SMU (5 p.m. on the ACC Network): Not on our bingo card for Week 10: This non-traditional ACC matchup would be the most significant game that doesn’t involve the Big Ten.

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