Cardano Chang Hard Fork nears as traders stay cautious

Cardano’s upcoming Chang hard fork is set to arrive on September 1st. The upgrade was to come earlier, but the Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson announced on X that the much-anticipated upgrade had been postponed. According to Hoskinson, the development was necessary because some tier-1 centralized exchanges, including Binance, were not ready to upgrade.

This upgrade introduces on-chain governance, which is the first for the platform. While the ADA community is excited about the upgrade, many are proceeding cautiously, which has decreased trading activity.

The upgrade might trigger a “sell the news” event

An on-chain analysis of ADA’s network activity reveals a waning demand for ADA as the upgrade date approaches. According to Santiment’s data, the daily count of addresses participating in ADA transactions has decreased by over 30%, indicating a drop in demand for the altcoin.

The negative price-daily active address (DAA) divergence further confirms this cautiousness. This metric compares price movements with changes in daily active addresses. ADA’s -15.7% DAA divergence signals a weakening market and potential for further price declines.

Many traders are worried that the Chang hard fork might result in a situation where they “sell the news.” This happens when traders buy expecting a price rise due to an upgrade but then swiftly sell afterward, leading to a price drop. To minimize risks of loss, holders of ADA holders are decreasing their trading activities. 

Interestingly, futures markets don’t seem bothered by these concerns. With a funding rate of 0.0084%, there appears to be more interest in long positions (predicting a price rise), showing that some traders are optimistic. 

ADA’s Price movements will vary depending on sell-off risks or upgrade-driven gain

Cardano traders can witness two possible price outcomes after the upgrade is implemented. In one scenario where the hard fork triggers a wave of sell-offs, ADA’s price could drop to $0.027. In a different scenario, if the upgrade brings about an optimistic market sentiment leading to a surge in ADA’s value, we might see its price rise significantly to $0.39 or even beyond the $0.40 mark, aligning with Cardano’s envisioned growth trajectory. 

Market sentiment is a good indicator of investors’ attitudes towards dumping. Currently, overall market sentiment has moved into the negative. 

The Fear & Greed Index shows that the market came out of “Greed” last week and lost over 27 points to move into “Fear” territory. This indicates that investors are more likely to sell their holdings than buy.