Callahan: Let’s hope Bill Belichick can do better than North Carolina

I’ve read the reports.

I heard him on The Pat McAfee Show.

I get all of the reasoning and rumors and speculation.

But I can’t bring myself to believe it.

Bill Belichick is really going to pace a college sideline next season clad in Carolina Blue glaring at opponents like the University of Richmond, Charlotte and Central Florida?

This is how the greatest football coach of all time saunters into the sunset?

Let’s hope not.

The reporting on Belichick’s ongoing conversations with the University of North Carolina about its head-coaching job started fairly scattered, though it’s come together lately to indicate his interest is legitimate. The man himself confirmed Monday talks have taken place, and reportedly, those occurred first over video conference, then a meeting in New York and finally a Sunday sitdown in the greater Boston area.

This is what else we know.

The Tar Heels are a portrait of football mediocrity. They will add another brush stroke when they kick off the Wasabi Fenway Bowl against fellow powerhouse UConn in a few weekends to finish 7-6 or 6-7. Less than three weeks ago, James Madison torched them for 70 points in a home loss so bad it had exiting coach Mack Brown weighing retirement on the spot.

Study the program’s 121-year history, and you will find zero national championships and a single appearance in the top five of the AP Poll since 1997. North Carolina has also struggled to fundraise thus far in the era of NIL (name, image and likeness) deals for players, which directly affects how well it can build their roster via high school recruiting and the transfer portal. Whether or not those NIL pockets deepen soon — something Brown suggested will happen — engaging with this type of program signals one thing for Belichick: he doesn’t like his odds of returning to the NFL.

That is equal parts bummer and stunner, considering franchises that have a head-coaching vacancy (Chicago and New Orleans) or should soon (Dallas and Jacksonville) ought to be all over him. Alas, Belichick has had 11 months to pitch himself, again, to the NFL, and now he might be going back to school.

And unless Belichick is committed to one of the better-orchestrated coaching bluffs ever — designed to prod unsure owners into guaranteeing him an interview next month before he’s off the board (which no one should put past him) — here we are.

How did we get here?

Patriots’ Jerod Mayo reacts to Bill Belichick interviewing for UNC head coaching job

Well, the public rationalization, er, narrative, er, reporting, suggests the ongoing professionalization of college football has Belichick's attention. His son, Steve, is also wrapping up his first season as the defensive coordinator at the University of Washington, where one-time Patriots assistant, Jedd Fisch, is the head coach. Belichick's right-hand man of almost three decades, Berj Najarian, is also the chief of staff at Boston College under Bill O'Brien.

Combining those connections, among others, with months of research has Belichick believing he could build an NFL-style program at this level. But that belief obscures a crucial, fundamental question.

Even if college football has changed enough for Belichick, can Belichick change enough for college football?

Because Belichick is used to making north of $20 million per year. He's used to players working under binding, multi-year contracts. And he's used to hiring whomever he wants at whatever salary he wants to fill out his staff.

He should find none of that at North Carolina.

From ESPN on Monday: "There are issues that loom over any Belichick courtship, including the potential role of his son Stephen Belichick, UNC's NIL resources, Belichick's salary and resources for the staff."

The inside story of the Patriots’ fall to rock bottom in the Bill Belichick era

There are other bridges to cross, as well. So long as "college" is the first word in college football, the lifeblood of the sport will be 17- to 20-year-olds; famously the most inconsistent human beings on earth. In the age of the transfer portal, recruiting them is a mandatory, year-round practice because any time a player wants to leave, he can.

Georgia Tech, a comparable ACC program fresh off its best regular season in almost a decade, just watched its No. 1 receiver enter the portal Monday. If he lands a more lucrative NIL deal or spots greener grass elsewhere, poof. He's gone.

And if program benefactors are upset about the product their coach is putting on the field, the same benefactors whose money pays for the program and roster, poof. Their money, or worse yet that coach, could be gone, too. How do you think Belichick would tolerate such entitlement from deep-pocketed fans, let alone his own players?

As some have noted, the transfer portal cuts both ways and could allow Belichick to pull seasoned third-, fourth- and fifth-year players from other programs to build a completely new roster. They cite examples like Indiana's first-year coach Curt Cignetti, who led the Hoosiers into this year's College Football Playoff, and Colorado under Deion Sanders.

But those comparisons omit three things: Sanders arrived at Colorado with two future, top-5 picks, including a quarterback and the likely next Heisman winner in Travis Hunter. And Indiana coasted through a cupcake schedule this year during a Cinderella season. Also, recruiting is still king.

Like the best NFL teams who all dominate the draft, championship college programs are built through recruiting. In the College Football Playoff era, Alabama and Georgia have won five of the 10 national titles. During that time, they also produced the No. 1 recruiting class every year but one.

North Carolina's current recruiting class ranks 90th out of 134, trailing schools like East Carolina, Arkansas State and Toledo. Their lone top-100 recruit is a four-star quarterback named Bryce Baker who's receiving overtures from Penn State and LSU while weighing whether he wants to stay. College football hinges on coaches persuading and developing young people like Baker, something Belichick must do in order to survive.

You can count two Patriots who played a combined 28 seasons under Belichick as doubtful.

“I can only imagine a guy failing classes and he’s worrying about guys being eligible,” Pats cornerback Jonathan Jones said Monday. “I don’t think he wants to deal with that. I think that’s a big part of it. College is a different landscape.”

“There’s a lot of things he can do, and obviously he’s tremendous, and even showing his personality,” Tom Brady said this weekend on FOX. “But getting out there on the recruiting trail and dealing with all these college kids with NIL? Could you imagine him recruiting?”

All of which is to say even if Belichick receives an offer, harbors genuine interest and isn't leveraging NFL owners to pick up the phone, there is no guarantee he accepts. Or if he does, this ends well.

Years ago when I covered major college football, ex-Ohio State coach Urban Meyer told me his job consisted of just 20% of real coaching. The rest came down to recruiting. Meyer, for all his real, personal flaws, knows college football, which today may task its coaches with something closer to a 50-50 split.

Will Belichick really cap his career by spending half his time with the sport he loves?

I don't know.

I just know I will need to see this to believe it.