Breaking down the Garrett Crochet trade: What the Red Sox got and gave up

DALLAS – After losing out on two top free agents during this week’s Winter Meetings, the Red Sox came through in the form of a trade for Chicago White Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet.

Crochet, 25, was the top lefty starter on the trade market. After spending the first three seasons of his big-league career in the bullpen, he moved to Chicago’s starting rotation this year and emerged as a promising force. Over 32 starts, he pitched to a 3.58 ERA and 1.068 WHIP, with 209 strikeouts in 146 innings.

A four-seam fastball headlines Crochet’s arsenal, but he also has a cutter, sweeper, and the lesser-utilized changeup and sinker. His fastball was a devastating weapon this year, ranking in the 98th MLB percentile in run value and 92nd percentile in velocity. He also ranked in the 87th MLB percentile or better in nearly every other Statcast pitching metric, including pitching run value, expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), and chase, whiff, walk, and strikeout rates. Crochet’s six double-digit strikeout games were tied for the most in the majors. According to MLB’s Sarah Langs his 35.1% strikeout rate this year was the highest by a pitcher in the season in which he made his first career start (min. 140 innings).

The trade draws obvious comparisons to Boston’s December 2016 trade for Chris Sale – also a White Sox lefty starter at the time – but there’s a key difference. Sale was already a bonafide ace when the Red Sox gave up Yoan Moncada, who was ranked baseball’s No. 1 prospect by MLB.com at the time, and fellow top prospects Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe, and Victor Diaz to get him. Between his first season in the White Sox starting rotation in 2012, and the end of his final season in Chicago, Sale pitched to a 3.04 ERA and 1.061 WHIP over 149 games (148 starts), including 14 complete games, and struck out 1,133 batters over 1,015 ⅔ innings. He was an All-Star and finished top-five for AL Cy Young in each of those five seasons. Crochet just completed his first season in the rotation, and his 146 innings were exactly double his previous career total.

In exchange for Crochet, the top left-handed starting option on the trade market, the Red Sox are sending four prospects, catcher Kyle Teel, outfielder Braden Montgomery, infielder Chase Meidroth, and right-hander Wikelman Gonzalez, to the Chicago White Sox. All four prospects were in Boston’s Top 30 on MLB Pipeline. Teel and Montgomery were Boston’s first-round picks in ‘23 and ‘24, respectively. According to the Pipeline, Montgomery is the only one of the four who isn’t slated for a 2025 debut.

Teel is the most decorated catcher in Virginia program history and was one of the organization’s “Big Three” prospects. He ranked No. 4 in the organization and No. 25 in baseball’s overall Top 100, and is considered the best Red Sox catching prospect since Jason Varitek.

Montgomery, 21, was No. 5 in the organization, and No. 54 in the Top 100. Before being drafted, he spent two summers in the Cape Cod Baseball League, where his manager, Scott Pickler, described the young outfielder as a “freak athlete” with “an unbelievable outfield arm.”

Meidroth boasts solid bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline, rarely chasing out of the strike zone. He’s played second, third, and shortstop.

Of the quartet, Gonzalez is the only prospect not in Baseball America’s Top 10 rankings for the organization (he’s No. 14 in Boston’s Top 30 on MLB Pipeline). He’s the third-highest ranking right-hander in the system (not including Richard Fitts, who made his MLB debut late this year but still retains his prospect status).

After years of sidelining themselves and rebuilding, the Red Sox made a big splash.

Or, more likely, the first half of what will likely be a two-part splash. They weren’t willing to commit eight years to Max Fried, the top free-agent southpaw who agreed to a $218 million deal with the Yankees on Tuesday, breaking the lefty contract record set by Boston’s seven-year, $217 million David Price signing in December 2015. But the expectation is that the Red Sox will try to sign Crochet to a long-term extension that keeps him in Boston beyond his remaining two years of club control.

If that comes to pass, the Red Sox will be spending twice, and taking double the risk. Crochet entered the ‘24 season with 73 career innings under his belt, all thrown in a relief role. As he blew past his previous season high, 50-some innings by early spring, usage and health became frequent topics of discussion.

There are no guarantees with any big leaguer, though. And prospects are a risk, too. Approximately 10% of minor leaguers make it to the majors, and a small fraction of them stick around long enough to reach free agency. The Red Sox never really missed any of the four prospects they gave up to get Sale. But they certainly would’ve missed Sale’s arm in those early years and in the ninth inning of their clinching game in the 2018 World Series.

Trades are often lopsided, especially when it’s major league talent for prospect potential. The Red Sox have been without a top left-hander in their rotation since Sale’s long spate of injuries began in ‘19, and they went into this offseason publicly stating that adding a marquee arm was their top priority. They knew the cost of doing business, and were finally willing to pay up.

Only time will tell exactly how much the trade truly costs them.