Bitcoin remains range-bound: A characteristic behavior in the bull market

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to exhibit characteristic behavior as it remains firmly entrenched within a $5,000 price corridor despite occasional highs and lows in 2024. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has spent nearly 150 days trading between $40,000 and $44,999 as of February 2, 2024, defying expectations of a broader price trend.

Steadfast range-bound trading

Despite seeing two-year highs in 2024 and experiencing lows at $38,500, Bitcoin has failed to break free from its $5,000 price range. This consistent trading behavior has left both bulls and bears somewhat frustrated. However, according to research and data analyst James Van Straten from CryptoSlate, this type of price action is not unusual.

Looking closely at Bitcoin’s price behavior within $5,000 increments, Van Straten notes that the cryptocurrency has spent 146 days trading from $40,000 to $44,999. This duration has surpassed its previous stint in the $35,000 to $39,999 range, which lasted approximately 138 days.

Historical Trading Patterns

Analyzing Bitcoin’s historical price movements, Van Straten reveals that the cryptocurrency trades within specific price ranges for extended periods. From $10,000 to $49,999, Bitcoin has stayed within these price buckets for 100 to 250 days. 

Consequently, the current sideways price action aligns with these established historical patterns and can be considered characteristic rather than an anomaly.

The lack of sustained upside following the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) launch has led many market commentators to reevaluate their BTC price expectations. With the block subsidy halving event just over two months away, popular opinion now suggests that Bitcoin may only regain bullish momentum several months afterward. 

As a result, familiar price levels are expected to continue dominating the landscape in the near term.

Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of MN Trading, shares this sentiment: “My theory on Bitcoin remains the same. I’m still expecting a range-bound trend between $38-48K, as I’ve been mentioning for ~2 months. Probably a correction in the short-term, after which a slight pre-halving rally to $48K seems likely.”

ETF impact on Bitcoin supply

While the upcoming block subsidy halving event garners significant attention due to its potential impact on Bitcoin supply dynamics, ETFs are quietly making their presence felt in the market. 

These exchange-traded funds are reportedly removing coins from circulation at a rate that is ten times faster than the rate of new supply per day. This phenomenon indicates the growing institutional interest in Bitcoin and its impact on market dynamics.