Bills defying preseason projections, among AFC elite

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) — So much for preseason projections and concerns over how this might be a down year for the Buffalo Bills.

Clearly, with Josh Allen at quarterback, anything and everything is possible, with Buffalo asserting itself as the class of the AFC East, however flawed the division might be.

And yet, significant questions remain regarding the Bills who, at 7-2, have a four-win edge over their nearest division rival, the New York Jets (3-6), and in the driver’s seat to clinch their fifth straight AFC East title.

Just how good are they? And where might they fit in the entire NFL hierarchy?

The answers should become clearer over a six-week stretch — including a bye week — before the Bills close with two meetings against New England and another against the Jets. With one win against an opponent entering Week 10 with a winning record (Arizona), and losses at Baltimore (6-3) and Houston (6-3), Buffalo enters the meat of its schedule.

It begins with a trip to Indianapolis (4-5) on Sunday, followed by home games against playoff nemesis Kansas City and San Francisco, followed by road games at the Rams and Detroit.

Soft as their schedule has seemed, what can’t be disputed is how the Bills have persevered through injuries and overcome the deficiencies of a team retooling on the fly following an offseason salary cap purge led to the departure of six of eight captains.

Credit GM Brandon Beane for restocking his roster with youngsters capably filling key roles, and coach Sean McDermott for developing them while maintaining the foundation of a selfless, team-first culture the Bills so often lacked before the two arrived in 2017.

Beane and McDermott have met their vision of building a sustainable winner in Buffalo, with the Bills having taken over a division once ruled by the Patriots coach/QB tandem of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.

The one thing missing is playoff success.

The Bills are 5-6 in postseason outings under McDermott, with just one AFC championship game appearance, which ended with a 38-24 loss to the Chiefs in the 2020 season. Buffalo has now been eliminated by Kansas City three times in the past four years, and Cincinnati once.

Is it too much to expect more from the Bills this year, given a roster that features 17 players — nine of them starters — with less than three full seasons of NFL experience? And how much might injuries play a factor, with receivers Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman nursing wrist injuries, rookie defensive tackle DeWayne Carter (wrist surgery) to miss at least another two weeks and starting linebacker Matt Milano (left biceps) not set to return until December at the earliest?

On the flip side, wins such as the one Buffalo pulled out Sunday in beating Miami 30-27 on Tyler Bass’ franchise-record 61-yard field goal with 5 seconds left can be galvanizing for a team still in the midst of establishing an identity.

“Fundamentally, we’re better than what we were today. Just a lot to improve on,” McDermott said. “But we hung in there.”

Stay tuned to a team that remains a work in progress.

What’s working

Limiting and creating turnovers. Allen’s two interceptions and two lost fumbles account for all four of Buffalo’s giveaways this season. The defense has forced 15 turnovers, including at least one in each outing to match Buffalo’s longest single-season stretch since 2004.

What needs help

Run defense. The Bills eked out beating Miami by taking away the Dolphins’ deep threats and limiting Tua Tagovailoa to mostly short passing attempts. And yet, the Dolphins kept the score close with 149 yards rushing, the second most Buffalo allowed this season behind 271 in a 35-10 loss to Baltimore.

Stock up

Bass, who else? After missing his third extra-point attempt of the season, and banking another one in off the goal post on Sunday, the fifth-year player delivered with a clutch kick by splitting the uprights on an attempt that would’ve been good from 65 yards.

Stock down

WR Curtis Samuel. Signed to a three-year contract this offseason, Samuel has 12 catches for 92 yards while essentially filling the No. 5 receiver slot, based on playing time.

Injuries

McDermott on Monday announced edge rusher Dawuane Smoot requires surgery to repair a wrist injury and will be placed on injured reserve. Coleman is being evaluated for a wrist injury. Edge rusher Casey Toohill was sidelined by a knee injury. Cooper and starting CB Christian Benford (wrist) did not play.

Key number

184 — Number of Allen’s TDs passing to move ahead of Joe Ferguson (181) for second on the franchise list behind Hall of Famer Jim Kelly (237).

Next steps

The Bills' magic number to clinch the East is down to five, as in a combination of five Buffalo wins or five Jets losses.