Bank stocks and not Bitcoin are the top play for 2025 – Wall Street

Wall Street strategists are rallying around bank stocks as the top investment choice heading into 2025. The optimism is fueled by several key factors: a robust US economy, expectations of deregulation under President-elect Donald Trump, competitive valuations, and lower interest rates

Investment teams from major firms like Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, UBS, Barclays, Société Générale, and JPMorgan Chase have all advised prioritizing stocks and equities for the coming year. 

High-profile analysts such as Savita Subramanian of Bank of America, Brian Belski of BMO, and Chris Harvey of Wells Fargo are among those emphasizing the appeal of financial stocks.

In a recent client note, Harvey highlighted the sector’s undervaluation, urging money managers to shift their focus to financial stocks. Similarly, Belski’s 2025 outlook reiterates that financials remain “drastically unloved” despite strong earnings growth forecasts and attractive pricing.

US stocks lead global markets

Wall Street analysts broadly agree on maintaining a preference for large US companies. The S&P 500 index is on track to deliver an exceptional total return exceeding 25% for a second consecutive year, a feat economists say is rarely seen.

Wall Street's 2025 outlook for stocks ???? https://t.co/C1UoOm274S pic.twitter.com/uH6Of7zMux

— TKer (@TKerLLC) December 8, 2024

Some analysts have acknowledged opportunities abroad, but most see the US market as the cornerstone for growth, especially as leadership shifts away from Big Tech toward sectors such as financials and utilities.

US stocks now account for more than half of the global equity market’s value, their highest share since late 2001. According to FactSet data, the heightened market activity is driven by superior earnings growth among the largest American firms.

Barclays’ chief US equity strategist, Venu Krishna, noted that the earnings outlook remains robust, with Big Tech still leading growth while other sectors slowly gain traction. The Trump administration’s proposed tax cuts and deregulation measures could further boost corporate earnings and economic expansion through increased deficit spending.

Economists: US stocks are garnering huge capital influx

JPMorgan’s global strategy group, led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, predicts that these sectors will benefit from an influx of capital. His sentiments were echoed by Alex Blostein, a senior analyst at Goldman Sachs, who noted that approximately $7 trillion parked in money market funds is beginning to flow into the market, starting with fixed income and potentially moving into stocks.

The confidence in financials isn’t confined to analysts. Top bank executives have expressed similar sentiments, projecting a strong 2025 for the sector. At last month’s Invest conference, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan conveyed confidence in the US economy under the Trump administration, predicting swift policy actions.

Executives at JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs echoed this optimism during Goldman Sachs’ Financial Services conference. Denis Coleman, Goldman Sachs’ CFO, cited “elevated levels of optimism” going into 2025, while JPMorgan’s Consumer & Community Banking CEO Marianne Lake forecasted a rise in investment banking fees fueled by increased strategic transactions.

“We’re seeing an acceleration in client dialogues,” Coleman stated.

Analysts aware of Bitcoin’s progress

Meanwhile, Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, believes Bitcoin (BTC) will hit $250,000 by the end of 2025. Lee has cemented his reputation for accurate market forecasts, successfully predicting the S&P 500’s 24% rally in 2023 and its rise to 6,000 points in 2024.

Lee has been bullish on Bitcoin, forecasting its price would surpass $100,000 this year, a prediction that came true. His investment thesis revolves around the growing demand for Bitcoin due to spot ETFs, reduced supply following block subsidy halvings, and favorable interest rate trends.

Despite his optimism, Lee warned of potential volatility in early 2025, with Bitcoin prices possibly falling to $60,000 before rebounding to $250,000 by year-end. He advised investors to approach Bitcoin with conviction, noting that its annual gains often occur within a brief 10-day period.

On the other hand, Wall Street veteran investor Dennis Gartman has dismissed BTC’s current rally as a strong investment case, saying he prefers Gold to the digital currency. 

During an interview with Bloomberg, Dennis Gartman expressed surprise at Bitcoin’s recent surge beyond $100,000, likening the cryptocurrency’s rise to historical speculative bubbles. The Chairman of the Akron University Investment Committee drew parallels to the tulip mania of 16th-century Holland and the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s.

“This reminds me too much of the tulip bulb craze and the high-tech craze of the late 20th century,” Gartman remarked. “I will leave it to others to buy; I will avoid it.”

Gartman also pushed back against Bitcoin’s reputation as “digital gold,” arguing that the cryptocurrency’s limited track record falls short when compared to gold’s longstanding value as an asset.

“Bitcoin has been valued for months at some price. Gold has centuries of being valued as an asset,” he said. “I will take the centuries bet over the monthly bet almost anytime.”

Despite his skepticism, Gartman clarified that he has no intention of shorting Bitcoin. “I will leave it to people wiser or more daring than I am,” he added.

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