1st-and-10: A No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup ... with staying power?

When Florida State’s Jameis Winston and Oregon’s Marcus Mariota went 1-2 in the 2015 NFL draft to the Buccaneers and Titans, it didn’t take long for the comparisons to begin. They met in the 2015 season opener.

Mariota won it in a blowout. The second pass of his NFL career was a 52-yard touchdown to Kendall Wright (yes, that Kendall Wright). Winston’s first pass was intercepted by Coty Sensabaugh and returned 26 yards for a touchdown and the Titans led 14-0 less than four minutes into the game.

Mariota completed 13 of 15 passes for 209 yards, four touchdowns and a perfect 158.3 passer rating in a 42-14 rout. Winston was not nearly as proficient — 16 of 33 for 210 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions for a 64.0 rating.

As it turned out, Winston (28-42 as a starter) and Mariota (29-32) have had similarly disappointing careers. Mariota did win a playoff game with the Titans, but after five seasons (with an 89.6 passer rating) he was replaced by Dolphins cast-off Ryan Tannehill. Winston’s high point was also his low-point. In 2019, he led the NFL in passing yards (5,109) but also in interceptions (30). Like Mariota, he lasted five seasons (with an 86.9 passer rating) — replaced by Tom Brady, who led the Buccaneers to a Super Bowl championship in the 2020 season.

In retrospect, the No. 1 vs. No. 2 showdown wasn’t worth the hype. They never have been. The previous No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchups have featured mostly disappointments.

The Colts’ Peyton Manning (No. 1 in 1998) is a Hall of Famer and one of the best quarterbacks of all-time. But the Chargers’ Ryan Leaf was an almost immediate failure. Drew Bledsoe (No. 1 in 1993) made four Pro Bowls and reached the Super Bowl with the Patriots in 1996, but Rick Mirer (yes, that Rick Mirer) was 24-44 in eight seasons in the NFL.

Trevor Lawrence (No. 1 in 2021) is fighting the good fight with the Jaguars, but the Jets’ Zach Wilson was benched in Year 3. C.J. Stroud (No. 2 in 2023) looks like a winner so far, but Bryce Young already has been benched in Carolina.

The Caleb Williams-Jayden Daniels showdown might not come to fruition after Daniels injured his ribs last week. But either way, the Bears and Commanders have to feel good that their guy is following the C.J. Stroud path and not the Bryce Young path.

And it’s about more than just the quarterback. The Bears (4-2) vs. Commanders (5-2) game would be the first No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup where even one of the teams has a winning record. Williams’ 88.7 passer rating is the best of any quarterback drafted No. 1 overall since the merger (his rating is 122.8 over the past three games). Daniels’ 107.1 passer rating is the best of any quarterback drafted No. 2 overall since the merger.

The Bears are improving. The Commanders just beat the Panthers 40-7 even with Daniels playing just 10 snaps. This is the most-anticipated, must-watch Bears game probably since 2019 — even if the No. 1 vs. No. 2 quarterback matchup is Caleb Williams vs. … Marcus Mariota.

2. The Bears’ latest offensive renaissance isn’t official until Bears fans start worrying about losing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron — we’re still a week or two away from that.

It last happened in 2022, when the Bears averaged 31 points in a four-game span against the Patriots (a 33-14 victory), Cowboys (49-29 loss), Dolphins (35-32 loss) and Lions (31-30 loss) — leading to concern the Bears might lose Luke Getsy. The Bears averaged 15.6 points in their final seven games (0-7) and that was that.

Every previous surge since the Ditka era has petered out. What’s different about this one?

“It’s hard for me not to say the quarterback,” tight end Cole Kmet said. “There are a lot of other elements to it — protecting and all that. But I think Caleb has a knack for playmaking and making plays happen.”

3. The Bears’ offensive line — and their protection scheme overall — should be in the spotlight as much as Williams against the Commanders. Protection has improved significantly in the three-game winning streak, but that has come against teams ranked in the bottom 10 in sacks — the Rams (23rd), Panthers (31st) and Jaguars (25th).

The Commanders are sixth — the best pass rushing team the Bears have faced since the Texans, who sacked Williams seven times in the Bears’ 19-13 loss in Week 2 at NRG Stadium.

4. The NFC North is now 17-4 against non-division opponents (9-0 since Week 4) after the Packers beat the Texans 24-22 at Lambeau Field on Sunday. That’s the best record in the NFL and the best after seven weeks in the 23-year history of the eight-division alignment. (The NFC West was 16-5 against non-division opponents in 2020.)

Both division games have finished with the same score — the Lions beat the Vikings 31-29 at U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday; the Vikings beat the Packers 31-29 at Lambeau in Week 4.

But the division is winning with defense. If you extract the division games, the NFC North has the top four teams in the NFL in passer rating defense — the Vikings (68.3), Bears (72.8), Lions (75.3) and Packers (75.9).

5. Justin Fields can’t buy a break. Fields was 4-2 in his last six games with the Bears and dropped in favor of Caleb Williams. He was 4-2 in his first six games with the Steelers and was benched in favor of Russell Wilson — who entrenched himself with two touchdowns passing and one rushing in a 37-15 victory over the Jets.

Fields has played 395 of the Steelers’ 465 offensive snaps this season — 85.0%. But this saga is not over yet.

6. Twilight Zone Dept.: Every Bears quarterback drafted in the first round since the merger has had a big game against Washington, but suffered an injury the following week:

Cade McNown in 1999 (three touchdown passes off the bench/sprained knee); Rex Grossman in 2003 (first two NFL touchdown passes/torn finger ligament); Mitch Trubisky in 2019 (three touchdown passes to Taylor Gabriel/dislocated shoulder); and Justin Fields in 2023 (four touchdown passes, 125.3 rating/dislocated thumb.

7. The Bears aren’t likely to be big players at the trade deadline, possibly selling more than buying. General manager Ryan Poles has taken swings at filling major holes the past two seasons — whiffing on wide receiver Chase Claypool in 2022, hitting a home run on Montez Sweat last year.

The biggest hole this year might be at left tackle or right guard — a little trickier with the dynamic of an offensive line, and there’s no Sweat-like game-changer available.

One other factor to consider: the Bears have a quarterback making everybody better on offense. And they have several improving players on defense — defensive tackle Gervon Dexter, cornerbacks Kyler Gordon and Tyrique Stevenson and safety Jaquan Brisker among them. There’s a lot of potential second-half upgrades without making a trade. The x-factor, as always, is avoiding injuries.

8. Quick Hits: The Bears scored one touchdown in their first 30 offensive drives this season. They have scored 15 touchdowns in their last 32 drives. … The Bears are the only team in the NFL that hasn’t allowed a 95 or better passer rating this season (Stroud, 94.7). … There should only be one game on Monday nights. … Back-up quarterbacks are 2-4 with a 61.7 passer rating (seven touchdowns, 13 interceptions) against the Bears in the Matt Eberflus era — 1-4 with a 51.5 rating since the Jets’ Mike White threw three touchdown passes to beat them in 2022. … When Eagles running back Saquon Barkley rushed for 176 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries against the Giants, it was the second most rushing yards for a player against his former team. The most? Cedric Benson’s 189 yards against the Bears in 2009.

9. Ex-Bears Player of the Week: Ravens linebacker Roquan Smith had 18 tackles and a forced fumble in a 41-31 victory over the Buccaneers.

10. Bear-ometer — 10-7: at Commanders (W); at Cardinals (W); vs. Patriots (W); vs. Packers (L); vs. Vikings (W); at Lions (L); at 49ers (L); at Vikings (L); vs. Lions (W); vs. Seahawks (W); at Packers (L).